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Home ANALYSIS

The AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as NA session begins

A.R Chowdhury by A.R Chowdhury
March 9, 2022
Reading Time: 9 mins read
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The AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as NA session begins

As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest while the JPY is the weakest. The USD is mostly lower.

There is a flow out of the relative safety of the JPY, USD and CHF today. The EUR is also stronger as hopes for peace in Ukraine ripple through the various markets.

Although there are reports of continued shelling (and suppression from leaving) of refugees trying to exit via the so-called corridors (and the death count rises), there has been some shifting in language by both parties on the intentions going forward which open a window for a peaceful solution to the war.

Russia’s foreign minister spokesperson Zakharova, said that Russia has no intention of occupying Ukraine or overthrowing the government (admittedly Putin alluded to that as well at times while continuing the invasion). Yesterday Ukraine’s Zelensky implied that he would drop the joining of NATO as a prerequisite for a deal.

Meanwhile, the pressure remains public company pressure continues on Russia with Coca Cola/Pepsi suspending soda sales, as does Starbucks and General Electric. Yum Yum Brands and McDonald’s both said that they would temporarily suspend operations in the country. Not only will these actions deny Russians of goods and services, but it also puts Russians out of work.

Fitch lowers the Russian rating further as they expect default of debt. There have been 160 additional Russians sanctioned including 14 oligarchs.

The Russian central bank prohibited the sale of the ruble for six months. The currency is 69% lower since February 17 swing low.

Yesterday the US and UK both said that they will look to ban Russian oil imports. The EU looks to cut its reliance on imports by two thirds within a year.

USDRUB

USDRUB is up 69% from a February low

US and European stocks are higher. Yields are also higher. Gold is lower. Oil is lower. Bitcoin is surging. Wheat is lower for the second consecutive day. Nickel continues not to trade after the LME stopped trading yesterday and and X’ed out the short squeeze trades that sent the price up toward $100,000.

A snapshot look at the market is showing:

  • Spot gold is down $-31.53 or -1.53% at $2018.71
  • Spot silver is down $0.14 or -0.52% at $26.22
  • WTI  crude oil 
    Crude Oil

    Crude oil is the most popular tradable instrument in the energy sector, offering exposure to global market conditions, geopolitical risk, and economics. The instrument is strategically relied upon and situated in the global economy. Crude oil has proven to be a unique option for traders given volatility and the efficacy of both swing trading and longer-term strategies. Despite its popularity, crude oil is a very complex investing instrument, given the litany of fluctuations in oil prices, risk, and impact of politics stemming from OPEC. Short for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC operates as an intergovernmental organization of 13 countries, helping set and dictate the global oil market.How to Trade Crude Oil Crude oil is most commonly traded as an exchange-traded fund (ETF) or through other instruments with exposure to it. This includes energy stocks, the USD/CAD, and other investing options. Crude oil itself is traded across a duality of markets, including the West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) and Brent crude. Brent is the more relied upon index in recent years, while WTI is more heavily traded across futures trading at the time of writing. Other than geopolitical events or decisions by OPEC, crude oil can move due to a variety of different ways.  The most basic is through simple supply and demand, which is affected by global output. Increased industrial output, economic prosperity, and other factors all play a role in crude prices. By extension, recessions, lockdowns, or other stifling factors can also influence crude prices. For example, an oversupply or mitigated demand due to the aforementioned factors would result in lower crude prices. This is due to traders selling crude oil futures or other instruments.  Should demand rise or production plateau, traders will bid increasingly on crude, whereby driving prices up.

    Crude oil is the most popular tradable instrument in the energy sector, offering exposure to global market conditions, geopolitical risk, and economics. The instrument is strategically relied upon and situated in the global economy. Crude oil has proven to be a unique option for traders given volatility and the efficacy of both swing trading and longer-term strategies. Despite its popularity, crude oil is a very complex investing instrument, given the litany of fluctuations in oil prices, risk, and impact of politics stemming from OPEC. Short for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC operates as an intergovernmental organization of 13 countries, helping set and dictate the global oil market.How to Trade Crude Oil Crude oil is most commonly traded as an exchange-traded fund (ETF) or through other instruments with exposure to it. This includes energy stocks, the USD/CAD, and other investing options. Crude oil itself is traded across a duality of markets, including the West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) and Brent crude. Brent is the more relied upon index in recent years, while WTI is more heavily traded across futures trading at the time of writing. Other than geopolitical events or decisions by OPEC, crude oil can move due to a variety of different ways.  The most basic is through simple supply and demand, which is affected by global output. Increased industrial output, economic prosperity, and other factors all play a role in crude prices. By extension, recessions, lockdowns, or other stifling factors can also influence crude prices. For example, an oversupply or mitigated demand due to the aforementioned factors would result in lower crude prices. This is due to traders selling crude oil futures or other instruments.  Should demand rise or production plateau, traders will bid increasingly on crude, whereby driving prices up.
    Read this Term
    is trading at $119.75 (settle at $123.70 yesterday). That is down $3.95 or -3.2%. The private inventory data last night showed crude inventories build of 2.81 million barrels versus an expected to draw of -0.657M. Gasoline stocks had a draw of what -1.988M vs an expected draw of -2.105M. The EIA data will be released at 10:30 AM ET this morning.
  •  Bitcoin 
    Bitcoin

    Bitcoin is the largest and world’s first digital currency launched back in 2009 by the entity, Satoshi Nakamoto. Being a digital currency, a defining feature of Bitcoin is that it functions without a central bank or single administrator. Rather, Bitcoin instead can be sent by peer-to-peer (P2P) networking, which is itself absent of any intermediaries.Instead of being a physical currency, Bitcoins represent pieces of digital code that can be sent and received across a kind of distributed ledger network called a blockchain. As Bitcoins are not issued or backed by any governments or central banks, it is considered to be legal tender. Transactions on the Bitcoin network are confirmed by a network of computers (or nodes) that solve a series of complex equations. This process is called Bitcoin mining. In exchange for Bitcoin mining, computers receive rewards in the form of new Bitcoins. Over time, mining grows increasingly difficult, leading subsequent rewards to become smaller and smaller. Given the structure of code, there will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins in existence. However, as of 2020, there were already 18.3 million Bitcoins in circulation. Bitcoin Making HistorySince its launch back in 2009, Bitcoin has remained the most popular and largest cryptocurrency in terms of market cap in the world. Its popularity has also contributed significantly to the release of thousands of other cryptocurrencies, that are now known as altcoins. At its inception, the crypto market was originally hegemonic, though presently the landscape contains countless altcoins.Bitcoin has also been controversial since its original launch. It has been heavily criticized for its use in illegal transactions and money laundering given its decentralized nature.As Bitcoin is impossible to trace, this makes the cryptocurrency an ideal target for illicit behavior. Critics also point to its high electricity consumption for mining, rampant price volatility, and thefts from exchanges. Bitcoin has been seen by some as a speculative bubble given its lack of oversight.

    Bitcoin is the largest and world’s first digital currency launched back in 2009 by the entity, Satoshi Nakamoto. Being a digital currency, a defining feature of Bitcoin is that it functions without a central bank or single administrator. Rather, Bitcoin instead can be sent by peer-to-peer (P2P) networking, which is itself absent of any intermediaries.Instead of being a physical currency, Bitcoins represent pieces of digital code that can be sent and received across a kind of distributed ledger network called a blockchain. As Bitcoins are not issued or backed by any governments or central banks, it is considered to be legal tender. Transactions on the Bitcoin network are confirmed by a network of computers (or nodes) that solve a series of complex equations. This process is called Bitcoin mining. In exchange for Bitcoin mining, computers receive rewards in the form of new Bitcoins. Over time, mining grows increasingly difficult, leading subsequent rewards to become smaller and smaller. Given the structure of code, there will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins in existence. However, as of 2020, there were already 18.3 million Bitcoins in circulation. Bitcoin Making HistorySince its launch back in 2009, Bitcoin has remained the most popular and largest cryptocurrency in terms of market cap in the world. Its popularity has also contributed significantly to the release of thousands of other cryptocurrencies, that are now known as altcoins. At its inception, the crypto market was originally hegemonic, though presently the landscape contains countless altcoins.Bitcoin has also been controversial since its original launch. It has been heavily criticized for its use in illegal transactions and money laundering given its decentralized nature.As Bitcoin is impossible to trace, this makes the cryptocurrency an ideal target for illicit behavior. Critics also point to its high electricity consumption for mining, rampant price volatility, and thefts from exchanges. Bitcoin has been seen by some as a speculative bubble given its lack of oversight.
    Read this Term
    is trading sharply higher at $42,357. Biden ordered the exploration of a digital currency operated by the US central bank, and he encouraged regulators to identify and mitigate risks that digital assets pose to the financial system and broader economy. The actions were less threatening to traders.

In the premarket for the US stocks, the major indices are sharply higher and looking to snap four-day declines:

  • Dow industrial average is up 506 points after declining -184.74 points yesterday
  • S&P index up 66 points after falling -30.41 point yesterday
  • NASDAQ index is up 168 points after falling -35.41 point yesterday

European shares are also sharply higher with the DAX index up nearly 5%:

  • German DAX is up 4.84%
  • France’s CAC is up 4.47%
  • UK FTSE up 1.57%
  • Spain’s Ibex +3.1%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB +5%

In the US debt market, US yields are continuing their move back to the upside the second consecutive day

US yields

US yields are higher

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In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are also continuing their move to the upside today. The German 10 year is more comfortably above the parity level at 0.166%:

European 10 year yields

European 10 year yields are higher

Jolts job openings for January will be released at 10 AM ET with expectations of 10.925 million (unchanged from last month).

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A.R Chowdhury

A.R Chowdhury

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