Last Friday, the price settle at $115.68. So for the week, the price of crude oil is actually lower by $6.35 or -5.49%.
Looking at the hourly chart, the price is settling below its 200 hour moving average at $113.26. It’s 100 hour moving average is higher at $115.77. Get above those levels will be needed to increase the shorter-term bullish bias. On the downside a move below the low for the week at $103.63 would open the door for a retest of the $100 level.
The oil market has been pushed and pulled by the ebbs and flows of the news out of Ukraine. but also by the ebbs and flows of the news on the Iran nuclear deal.
That combination could blow up if the talks with Iran break up and there is more escalation of the war in Ukraine.
Recall, this week, the US and UK announced that they would cease imports of Russian oil. Meanwhile the EU said that they would look to decrease reliance by two thirds in 2022. In Iran progress is said to be close to a deal, but a final agreement has still not been reached.
Supply and demand fundamentals are in play, but there can be a big influence in the oil market price on expectations as well. If expectations toward an Iran agreement, along with decreased tension in Ukraine, and/or lower demand as a result of lower growth from higher prices (or myriad of other reasons), and the expectation curve can reverse and move to the downside.
Watch the price action on the charts for clues going forward.