Yield up from 1.344% a week ago
The 10 year yield closed last Friday at 1.344%. The current yield is around 1.372%. So for the week, the yield is up a little less than three basis points. That’s not all that much.
Looking at the week, the yield move down on Monday and Tuesday bottoming near the September low around 1.267% (the low yield reach 1.263%). The last three trading days has seen a move to the upside on each successive day. Today the high yield reached 1.385%. That equaled the high for the month of September at the same level. The price has not traded above that yield since July 14.
Also being tested at the highs is the 38.2% retracement at 1.375%, and at that same level sits the 200 hour moving average.
Next week, if the yield can get above the recent swing highs up to 1.385%, the next target would be the falling 100 hour moving average at 1.415%. The price has not traded above its 100 day moving average since June 17. If the yield is to move higher, getting above that moving average would be a bullish tilt.
The aforementioned 200 hour moving average has seen the price trading above and below that moving average level on a number of occasions over the last three calendar months. The first close below the 200 day moving average was back on July 19. Since then, there have been 16 trading days that have seen the price trade above and below (or just above) that moving average including today (44 total bars). From the low yield of 1.129%, the price has moved up a total of 25.6 basis point over 43 trading days, but there has been a number of up and down swing moves.
So next week will be dependent on what happens at 1.385%. Move above and then above the 100 hour moving average and the yield trend should see more upside momentum. Stay below, and we have a potential to rotate back toward the 1.267% low yield for the month of September.