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Home ANALYSIS

The AUD is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day

A.R Chowdhury by A.R Chowdhury
March 16, 2022
Reading Time: 8 mins read
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The AUD is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day

Forex

The strongest to weakest of the major currencies

The Fed will kick off the rate hike cycle today with a rise of 0.25 basis points most likely. That is the amount that the Fed chair Powell indicated at his testimony a few weeks ago. The rise in gas prices and concerns about the impact from the Russia/Ukraine war is likely to keep that rise at that level. However, the market will be looking for signs that a 50 basis point acceleration might be in order sooner rather than later if inflation continues to be elevated and expectations rise as a result. The Fed will also release its central tendencies (GDP likely lower for 2022, inflation likely higher, employment probably around the same), and projections from its dot plot. In December, the Fed targeted three hikes in 2022. The market expects more like seven. The Fed will likely be in the 4 to 5 hike range.

Ukraine president Zelensky will speak remotely to the U.S. Congress today. There have been overtures from both sides that a agreement might be closer, but Russian Pres. Putin also said that Ukraine was not serious in wanting a cease-fire. Russian government debt payments are expected to go into default, as it has signaled it wants to make interest payments in rubles versus the US dollars due to the sanctions.

In China, the government and central bank said that they would support the economy and particularly the financial markets. The Chinese stocks had their biggest one-day gain in years. The Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 9.08% on the day. That was the best day since October 2018. Even still, the index is down 2% on the week after having heavy losses. The Shanghai composite index rose 3.48% and the Shenzhen index rose by 4.01%.

There is a heavy economic calendar ahead of the FOMC decision with Canada CPI data, US retail sales, and import/export prices all released at 8:30 AM ET. At 10 AM, business inventories and NAHB housing pricing data will be released.

US stocks are higher in premarket trading as are European shares. Crude oil is up modestly. Gold is also up modestly US yields are little changed as well.

A snapshot of the markets currently shows:

  • Spot gold trading up three dollars or 0.15% at $1922
  • Spot  silver 
    Silver

    Silver is a precious metal that is commonly traded on exchanges or through brokers. It is much more affordable than gold and thanks to its importance as an industrial metal as well as volatility, is widely traded.For precious metals traders, gold is a much more popular market. Big institutions buy gold as a currency hedge when real interest rates and yields on other assets become unacceptably low. Central banks will buy gold, not silver, as a reserve asset to diversify their currency exposure.Instead, silver functions more heavily as a commodity than a currency. Silver, also known as the white metal, is commonly linked with gold and the relationship between the two often dictates its price. The entire silver market is worth about only $540 billion currently, which makes it much smaller than other markets.Despite its smaller size in market share, the price of silver can oscillate strongly without a lot of money moving into it.The supply of silver grows only by only 1 to 3 percent each year, and about half the market is consumed through industrial use (unlike gold, which is more limited in how it’s used).As of August 2020, there are 19.2 billion ounces of silver reserves globally (meeting certain purity standards) against 1.83 billion ounces of gold reserves.How to Trade SilverThe most common way for retail traders to get exposure to silver is through exchange-traded-funds (ETFs) or contracts-for-difference (CFDs). Both are typical offerings at retail brokerages.Investing in silver CFDs saves you the inconvenience of paying for silver storage. Moreover, CFDs give you the opportunity to trade silver in both directions. Many retail investors prefer trading silver through CFDs with brokers as there is no large fee for physical delivery or commission that can erode potential profits.

    Silver is a precious metal that is commonly traded on exchanges or through brokers. It is much more affordable than gold and thanks to its importance as an industrial metal as well as volatility, is widely traded.For precious metals traders, gold is a much more popular market. Big institutions buy gold as a currency hedge when real interest rates and yields on other assets become unacceptably low. Central banks will buy gold, not silver, as a reserve asset to diversify their currency exposure.Instead, silver functions more heavily as a commodity than a currency. Silver, also known as the white metal, is commonly linked with gold and the relationship between the two often dictates its price. The entire silver market is worth about only $540 billion currently, which makes it much smaller than other markets.Despite its smaller size in market share, the price of silver can oscillate strongly without a lot of money moving into it.The supply of silver grows only by only 1 to 3 percent each year, and about half the market is consumed through industrial use (unlike gold, which is more limited in how it’s used).As of August 2020, there are 19.2 billion ounces of silver reserves globally (meeting certain purity standards) against 1.83 billion ounces of gold reserves.How to Trade SilverThe most common way for retail traders to get exposure to silver is through exchange-traded-funds (ETFs) or contracts-for-difference (CFDs). Both are typical offerings at retail brokerages.Investing in silver CFDs saves you the inconvenience of paying for silver storage. Moreover, CFDs give you the opportunity to trade silver in both directions. Many retail investors prefer trading silver through CFDs with brokers as there is no large fee for physical delivery or commission that can erode potential profits.
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    is up one cent or 0.05% at $24.89
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading at $96.84 up $0.38
  • Bitcoin is trading back above the $40,000 level at $40,556. It traded as high as $41,693.97 and as low as $38,865.67 in overnight trading.

In the premarket for US stocks:

  • Dow industrial average is trading at 394 points after yesterday’s 599.10 point rise
  • S&P index 56 points after yesterday’s 89.32 point rise
  • NASDAQ index is trading up 246 points after yesterday’s 367.4 point rise

In the European equity markets, the major  indices 
Indices

Stock market indices represents an index that measures a particular stock market or a segment of the stock market. These instruments are important investors as they help compare current price levels with past prices to calculate market performance.The main two parameters for indices are that they are both investable and transparent. For example, investors can invest in a stock market index by buying an index fund, which is structured as either a mutual fund or an exchange-traded fund, and track an index. The difference between an index fund’s performance and the index, if any, is called tracking error. Most major countries boast multiple indices. Commonly traded indices include the S&P 500, NASDAQ-100, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIJA), EURO STOXX 50, Hang Seng Index, and many more.Stock market indices can be characterized or segmented by the index coverage set of stocks. The overall coverage of an index constitutes an underlying group of stocks, most commonly grouped together by underlying investor demand.How to Trade IndicesRetail brokers offer indices exposure through the use of contracts-for-difference (CFDs) or exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Each are popular ways to trade specific markets and are almost always on offer at most brokers.Investors can choose between multiple types of indices that traditionally fall within several categories. This includes country coverage, regional coverage, global coverage, exchange-based coverage, and sector-based coverage.All indices are ultimately weighted in a number of different ways. The most common mechanisms include market-capitalization weighting, free-float adjusted market capitalization weighting, volatility weighting, price weighting, and others.

Stock market indices represents an index that measures a particular stock market or a segment of the stock market. These instruments are important investors as they help compare current price levels with past prices to calculate market performance.The main two parameters for indices are that they are both investable and transparent. For example, investors can invest in a stock market index by buying an index fund, which is structured as either a mutual fund or an exchange-traded fund, and track an index. The difference between an index fund’s performance and the index, if any, is called tracking error. Most major countries boast multiple indices. Commonly traded indices include the S&P 500, NASDAQ-100, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIJA), EURO STOXX 50, Hang Seng Index, and many more.Stock market indices can be characterized or segmented by the index coverage set of stocks. The overall coverage of an index constitutes an underlying group of stocks, most commonly grouped together by underlying investor demand.How to Trade IndicesRetail brokers offer indices exposure through the use of contracts-for-difference (CFDs) or exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Each are popular ways to trade specific markets and are almost always on offer at most brokers.Investors can choose between multiple types of indices that traditionally fall within several categories. This includes country coverage, regional coverage, global coverage, exchange-based coverage, and sector-based coverage.All indices are ultimately weighted in a number of different ways. The most common mechanisms include market-capitalization weighting, free-float adjusted market capitalization weighting, volatility weighting, price weighting, and others.
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are also solidly higher:

  • German DAX is up 3.37%
  • France’s CAC is up 3.75%
  • UK’s FTSE 100 is up 1.37%
  • Spain’s Ibex is up 2.3%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB is up 3.35%

In the US debt market, yields are little changed ahead of the rate hike:

US yields

US yields are little changed

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In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are trading higher with the German tenure up to 0.388%:

European yields

European yields are higher
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A.R Chowdhury

A.R Chowdhury

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