USD/MXN is a great risk gauge at the moment
USD/MXN tells the story of COVID-19 as well as any chart. The jump in Feb-March shows the remarkable fear followed by two months of uncertainty.
There was a sharp retracement last Thursday and now the market is uncertain. There was a failed break to the downside yesterday and today is something akin to a doji star (on USD/MXN and many other charts).
I could give you a handful of reasons why risk trades like this one could break in either direction but it’s basically a tug-of-war between easy money and virus fears.