The 200 hour MA (green line) has acted as a barometer for bullish and bearish going back to last week. There have been a number of moves above and below the moving average, but the price tends to react to it shifting the bias on breaks (or holds) one way or the other.
The 100 hour moving average (blue line) is also been in play, and a bias defining technical level. Both on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, the price highs stalled near the 100 hour moving average. That kept the sellers more control/in play.
Today as outlined in a earlier post, the price highs stalled near both the 200 hour moving average and 38.2% retracement early in the Asian session. There was a brief try above each in the Asian session, but the price failed, and the price started to move back to the downside.
The move lower did try to stall at the 50% midpoint early in the US session, but then broke below. However, the lows from Tuesday and Wednesday could not be broken next (the last 3 days has seen marginally higher). That swing low dynamic now makes swing area between 1.09604 and 1.09649 as a new swing floor. Getting below would be needed to solicit more selling now.
The subsequent move higher in the US session has not only seen the 200 hour MA hold resistance, but also the 38.2% and the falling 100 hour MA. All those levels now come between 1.1010 and 1.10154.
The current price is back down at 1.0993 currently.
So the battle lines above and below remain the same but have increased in importance given the tests:
On the upside, the 1.1010 to 1.10154 (home to the 100/200 hour moving averages and 38.2% retracement) is resistance
On the downside, the 1.0960 to 1.09649 is support. That area represents swing lows from Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday.
On a break of either extreme, I would now look for momentum in the direction of the break. Until then, buyers and sellers battle it out with the extremes providing the support and resistance.
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