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Home ANALYSIS

EURJPY continues to work through the swing highs going back to mid-2021

A.R Chowdhury by A.R Chowdhury
March 24, 2022
Reading Time: 8 mins read
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EURJPY continues to work through the swing highs going back to mid-2021

The USDJPY has moved up 13 the last 14 trading days and in the process has seen a move higher of 740 pips. Yield differentials between the US and the Japan rate has been a big contributor to the move higher (see post here).

EUR

Euro 10 year yield – Japan 10 year yield spread widens

The same is true for the  EURJPY 
EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY is the currency pair encompassing the European Union’s single currency, the euro (symbol €, code EUR), and the Japanese yen of Japan (symbol ¥, code JPY).  The pair’s rate indicates how many Japanese yen are needed in order to purchase one euro. For example, when the EUR/JPY is trading at 125.00, it means 1 euro is equivalent to 125 Japanese yen. The euro (EUR) is the world’s second most traded currency, whilst the Japanese yen (JPY) is the world’s third most traded currency, resulting in an extremely liquid pair. Why the EUR/JPY Remains an Attractive Option for TradersWhilst the spreads of currency pairs vary from broker to broker, generally speaking the EUR/JPY often stays within the 1 pip to 3 pip spread range. The EUR/JPY is one of a select few pairs which have a low spread yet decent daily range.  Important news announcements for this pair include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Eurozone. Releases such as these give an idea of changes in the price of goods and services, and the Jobless Rate for Japan, which measures the percentage of unemployed in the country.For example, if this figure comes out as a lower percentage, it indicates strength in the Japanese economy, thereby pushing the EUR/JPY lower. Out of all the JPY pairs, it is the EUR/JPY that is arguably the most attractive to the broad spectrum of traders, regardless of their method of trading. Its low spread plus high volatility makes it a great candidate for both short- and long-term trading. Compared to the USD/JPY, it has a higher spread but higher range, whereas compared to the GBP/JPY, it has a lower spread but also a lower range. In this sense the EUR/JPY combines the best of both worlds, which explains part of its appeal

The EUR/JPY is the currency pair encompassing the European Union’s single currency, the euro (symbol €, code EUR), and the Japanese yen of Japan (symbol ¥, code JPY).  The pair’s rate indicates how many Japanese yen are needed in order to purchase one euro. For example, when the EUR/JPY is trading at 125.00, it means 1 euro is equivalent to 125 Japanese yen. The euro (EUR) is the world’s second most traded currency, whilst the Japanese yen (JPY) is the world’s third most traded currency, resulting in an extremely liquid pair. Why the EUR/JPY Remains an Attractive Option for TradersWhilst the spreads of currency pairs vary from broker to broker, generally speaking the EUR/JPY often stays within the 1 pip to 3 pip spread range. The EUR/JPY is one of a select few pairs which have a low spread yet decent daily range.  Important news announcements for this pair include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Eurozone. Releases such as these give an idea of changes in the price of goods and services, and the Jobless Rate for Japan, which measures the percentage of unemployed in the country.For example, if this figure comes out as a lower percentage, it indicates strength in the Japanese economy, thereby pushing the EUR/JPY lower. Out of all the JPY pairs, it is the EUR/JPY that is arguably the most attractive to the broad spectrum of traders, regardless of their method of trading. Its low spread plus high volatility makes it a great candidate for both short- and long-term trading. Compared to the USD/JPY, it has a higher spread but higher range, whereas compared to the GBP/JPY, it has a lower spread but also a lower range. In this sense the EUR/JPY combines the best of both worlds, which explains part of its appeal
Read this Term
and the Euro and Japan 10 year yields.

Looking at the chart above of the Euro 10 year minus the Japan 10 year, the spread has move up from -0.25 basis points to +0.27 basis points currently (change of 52 basis points). That has given a boost to the EURJPY in the process.

Looking at the daily chart of the EURJPY below, that pair has seen a move up from 124.38 on March 7 to a high today of 133.95. That represents a gain of 957 pips. The price has been up 11 the last 13 trading days.

Going back to the June 1, 2021 cycle high at 134.117, the pair since then had lower swing highs at 133.47 on October 10, 2020,, and 133.164 on February 10, 2022.

The surge to the upside has now seen the price extend above the most recent swing highs this week/today. The final hurdle is the June 1, 2021 high price at 134.117. Getting above that level would take the EURJPY to the highest level since February 2018.

EURJPY

EURJPY stretches above the swing highs since the June 2021

Taking a look at the weekly chart below, the swing highs going back to April and September 2018 reached 133.479 and 133.12 (see red numbered circles 1 and 2 in the chart below). Those are very close to the last two swing highs from October 2021 and February 2022 (red numbered circles 3 and 4).

As a result of that symmetry, that area (between 133.14 and 133.47) is now a support level for buyers. Stay above and the buyers are in firm control, move below and there should be some disappointment on the failure of the break (like with seen after the break higher in May 2021).

On the topside there is a another swing area starting at the 134.11 level (2021 high – green circle 7) and extending up to 134.58 (see green numbered circles on the weekly chart below).

That area would be the next hurdle to get to and through ahead of the extreme from 2017 and early 2018 which took the price all the way up to 137.497.

EURJPY

EURJPY on the weekly chart

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Like the  USDJPY 
USD/JPY

The USD/JPY is the currency pair encompassing the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD), and the Japanese yen of Japan (symbol ¥, code JPY). The pair’s rate indicates how many Japanese yen are needed in order to purchase one US dollar. For example, when the USD/JPY is trading at 100.00, it means 1 US dollar is equivalent to 100 Japanese yen.  The US dollar (USD) is the world’s most traded currency, whilst the Japanese yen is the world’s third most traded currency, resulting in an extremely liquid pair, and very tight spreads, often staying within the 0 pip to 2 pip spread range on most forex brokers. Although the range of the USD/JPY isn’t traditionally particularly high, the lack of large price action often associated with other JPY pairs does make it easier to trade.This is especially true for short-term traders, although without offering a great pip potential. Even though the USD/JPY is the world’s second most traded pair, it’s not as popular as one might think with regards to retail traders.The pair carries a reputation as “boring”, although this isn’t an entirely accurate reflection. Trading the USD/JPYThe JPY is highly regarded as a safe haven currency, with investors often increasing their exposure following periods of uncertainty or market-induced fallouts.As both the US and Japan are highly developed economies, there are several key factors affecting the value of either currencies. This includes a range of economic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation, interest rates and unemployment data. Monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan are also large determinants in the value of each currency.

The USD/JPY is the currency pair encompassing the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD), and the Japanese yen of Japan (symbol ¥, code JPY). The pair’s rate indicates how many Japanese yen are needed in order to purchase one US dollar. For example, when the USD/JPY is trading at 100.00, it means 1 US dollar is equivalent to 100 Japanese yen.  The US dollar (USD) is the world’s most traded currency, whilst the Japanese yen is the world’s third most traded currency, resulting in an extremely liquid pair, and very tight spreads, often staying within the 0 pip to 2 pip spread range on most forex brokers. Although the range of the USD/JPY isn’t traditionally particularly high, the lack of large price action often associated with other JPY pairs does make it easier to trade.This is especially true for short-term traders, although without offering a great pip potential. Even though the USD/JPY is the world’s second most traded pair, it’s not as popular as one might think with regards to retail traders.The pair carries a reputation as “boring”, although this isn’t an entirely accurate reflection. Trading the USD/JPYThe JPY is highly regarded as a safe haven currency, with investors often increasing their exposure following periods of uncertainty or market-induced fallouts.As both the US and Japan are highly developed economies, there are several key factors affecting the value of either currencies. This includes a range of economic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation, interest rates and unemployment data. Monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan are also large determinants in the value of each currency.
Read this Term
, trends are fast, directional and go farther than what traders expect. The EURJPY is on a trend move to the upside that has now seen the price push above a lower swing area up to 133.47, and now looks toward a higher swing area starting with the 2021 high at 134.117 and extending up to 134.58. Can the next hurdles be reached and breached as the trend higher continues?

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A.R Chowdhury

A.R Chowdhury

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