The subsequent rise took the price back toward a downward sloping trendline, but fell short of that target at the Asian session high’s today. Sellers turned back to buyers, and the fall below the 100 hour moving average today increased downside corrective probing.
The pair is currently testing a swing area between 134.615 and 134.867 (see red numbered circles). A move below would have traders looking toward the rising 200 hour MA (green line). The price of the EURJPY has not traded below the 200 hour MA since March 9. A break – and staying below -would give sellers the go-ahead to probe lower with the low from Monday at 133.93 and a swing area between 133.693 and 133.93 as a target area.
PS. Although there are some hope from the sellers, there is work to be done before the sellers start to take back more control after the trend move higher that took the pair from 124.39 to 137.53 in the month of March.
The 200 hour MA is certainly a key hurdle, as is the 38.2% of the move up in March at 132.512.
Looking at the daily chart, ahead of the 38.2% retracement are interim targets from swing highs in June 2021, October 2021, and February 2022. Those levels come in at at 134.117, 133.470, and 133.164 respectively (see red numbered circles and yellow area). Moving back below those levels would also give sellers the go-ahead to probe more to the downside. Conversely, holding above those levels would keep the buyers more in control.