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Home ANALYSIS

UPDATE EURUSD Technicals: EURUSD bounces off the 38.2% of the trend move today

A.R Chowdhury by A.R Chowdhury
March 31, 2022
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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EURUSD

EURUSD on the hourly chart

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EUR/USD

The EUR/USD is the currency pair encompassing the European Union’s single currency, the euro (symbol €, code EUR), and the dollar of the United States (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many euros are needed in order to purchase one dollar. For example, when the EUR/USD is trading at 1.2, it means 1 euro is equivalent to 1.2 dollars.  Why the EUR/USD is the Most Popular Trading PairCompared to all tradable currencies, the euro (EUR) is the world’s second most traded currency, behind only the US dollar. This currency pair is the most traded and liquid currency pair on the market.As the most popular trading pair, the EUR/USD is a staple of every brokerage offering and often has some of the lowest spreads relative to other pairs. Ultimately, the currency follows the two most economic blocs in the world and sees the most volume for this reason.The EUR/USD has a wide range of factors that influence its rates. From the EUR side, economic data in the Eurozone as well as internal factors in the bloc can easily impact rates. Even small member states can effectively weigh on the EUR, as seen in Greece during bailout talks in the 2010s. Alternatively, developments in the United States and the Federal Reserve commonly affect the EUR/USD. Many examples include the bailouts during the Financial crisis, tax cuts during the Trump Administration, and Covid-19 relief measures, among others.

The EUR/USD is the currency pair encompassing the European Union’s single currency, the euro (symbol €, code EUR), and the dollar of the United States (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many euros are needed in order to purchase one dollar. For example, when the EUR/USD is trading at 1.2, it means 1 euro is equivalent to 1.2 dollars.  Why the EUR/USD is the Most Popular Trading PairCompared to all tradable currencies, the euro (EUR) is the world’s second most traded currency, behind only the US dollar. This currency pair is the most traded and liquid currency pair on the market.As the most popular trading pair, the EUR/USD is a staple of every brokerage offering and often has some of the lowest spreads relative to other pairs. Ultimately, the currency follows the two most economic blocs in the world and sees the most volume for this reason.The EUR/USD has a wide range of factors that influence its rates. From the EUR side, economic data in the Eurozone as well as internal factors in the bloc can easily impact rates. Even small member states can effectively weigh on the EUR, as seen in Greece during bailout talks in the 2010s. Alternatively, developments in the United States and the Federal Reserve commonly affect the EUR/USD. Many examples include the bailouts during the Financial crisis, tax cuts during the Trump Administration, and Covid-19 relief measures, among others.
Read this Term
was heading lower and toward target support at the broken 38.2% of the move down from the Feb 10 high and the rising 100 hour MA (blue line). Those levels come in at 1.10684 and 1.10599 respectively.

The low price reached 1.10674 just below the 38.2% and the price bounced (the low was also near a swing corrective low from Tuesday as well).

The subsequent move higher reached up to 1.1132. That high stalled ahead of the low of a swing area (see red numbered circles) and the 50% midpoint (see earlier post). The price moved above that area yesterday, but failed on the extension higher today which led to the move lower on the disappointment.

What now?

Although the support did hold, the sellers seemed to line up ahead of the low of the higher swing area (and well below the 50% midpoint). As a result, sellers have the short term edge.

The pair has move back lower, trading at 1.1091 as I type. There remains the aforementioned support at the 38.2% and the rising 100 hour MA that admittedly still needs to be broken. Below that the 200 hour MA at 1.10342 is another downside target. Move below each would shift more of the bias in the favor of the sellers once again, and give more support to the failed break above the midpoint level.

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A.R Chowdhury

A.R Chowdhury

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