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Home ANALYSIS

USDCHF falls back below it’s 200 day MA

A.R Chowdhury by A.R Chowdhury
March 31, 2022
Reading Time: 8 mins read
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USDCHF falls back below it’s 200 day MA

USDCHF

USDCHF trades below 100 and 200 day MAs today

The  USDCHF 
USD/CHF

The USD/CHF is the currency pair encompassing the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD), and the Swiss franc of Switzerland (code CHF). The pair’s exchange rate indicates how many Swiss francs are needed in order to purchase one US dollar. For example, when the USD/CHF is trading at 1.2500, it means 1 US dollar is equivalent to 1.25 Swiss francs. The US Dollar (USD) is the world’s most traded currency, whilst the Swiss franc (CHF) is the world’s sixth most traded currency, resulting in a very liquid pair, with tight spreads, often staying within the 0 pip to 2 pip spread range on most forex brokers. Even though the Swiss franc might not be as liquid as the euro or yen, the USD/CHF currency pair is still liquid enough to be known as the fourth major. Trading the USD/CHF has its advantages and disadvantages. The main advantage being, a lot of traders often prefer to invest in the Swiss franc when economic or political instability is lurking.This is due to Switzerland traditionally being known as a safe haven, as it generally remains neutral and silent on many major geopolitical events, for example it never participates in wars. These investments can trigger large swings for traders, who may capitalize on such moves. The main disadvantage is that the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency.Thus, traders also can flock to the USD, trying to ascertain which currency is more likely to be embarked upon can prove tough at times. USD/CHF Still Living in Shadows of 2015The USD/CHF otherwise is seen as one of the lesser volatile pairs, with a tendency to follow the Euro, hence the negative correlation between it and the EUR/USD.The currency pair will forever be tethered to the events of January 2015 with the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Crisis which roiled currency markets.In this instance, the SNB abruptly decided to abandon the Swiss franc (CHF) currency peg with the euro, convulsing markets.

The USD/CHF is the currency pair encompassing the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD), and the Swiss franc of Switzerland (code CHF). The pair’s exchange rate indicates how many Swiss francs are needed in order to purchase one US dollar. For example, when the USD/CHF is trading at 1.2500, it means 1 US dollar is equivalent to 1.25 Swiss francs. The US Dollar (USD) is the world’s most traded currency, whilst the Swiss franc (CHF) is the world’s sixth most traded currency, resulting in a very liquid pair, with tight spreads, often staying within the 0 pip to 2 pip spread range on most forex brokers. Even though the Swiss franc might not be as liquid as the euro or yen, the USD/CHF currency pair is still liquid enough to be known as the fourth major. Trading the USD/CHF has its advantages and disadvantages. The main advantage being, a lot of traders often prefer to invest in the Swiss franc when economic or political instability is lurking.This is due to Switzerland traditionally being known as a safe haven, as it generally remains neutral and silent on many major geopolitical events, for example it never participates in wars. These investments can trigger large swings for traders, who may capitalize on such moves. The main disadvantage is that the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency.Thus, traders also can flock to the USD, trying to ascertain which currency is more likely to be embarked upon can prove tough at times. USD/CHF Still Living in Shadows of 2015The USD/CHF otherwise is seen as one of the lesser volatile pairs, with a tendency to follow the Euro, hence the negative correlation between it and the EUR/USD.The currency pair will forever be tethered to the events of January 2015 with the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Crisis which roiled currency markets.In this instance, the SNB abruptly decided to abandon the Swiss franc (CHF) currency peg with the euro, convulsing markets.
Read this Term
has moved back below both its 100 and 200 day MA at 0.92335 and 0.92105 respectively. Yesterday, the 100 day MA was broken but the price moved back above that MA line in the Asian session.

However, the price restarted to break back to the downside in the US session today and that has seen the run below both MA levels. Staying below the MA would give the sellers more confidence for more downside. There is a bunch of up and down swing levels down to the Feb 21 and Feb 28 lows near 0.9149 level on further selling pressure.

A move back above the 200 day MA would have traders questioning the break and could see a snap back rally toward the 100 day MA at 0.92336 (with a move above leading to more upside momentum on the failed break).

Looking at the  EURCHF 
EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF is the currency pair encompassing the European Union’s single currency, the euro (symbol €, code EUR), and the Swiss franc of Switzerland (code CHF). The pair’s rate indicates how many Swiss francs are needed in order to purchase one euro. For example, when the EUR/CHF is trading at 1.1000, it means 1 euro is equivalent to 1.1 Swiss francs.  The euro (EUR) is the world’s second most traded currency, while the Swiss franc (CHF) is the world’s sixth most traded currency, resulting in a comparatively liquid trading pair. Swiss National Bank CrisisThe EUR/CHF is most commonly defined by the events of 15th of January, 2015 – the date on which the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to lift the cap imposed on the Swiss Franc from 2011.This was set to a maximum of just over 0.83 euros, meaning the EUR/CHF would not be allowed to fall below 1.2.  The reason why the cap was imposed in the first place was sparked by the Eurozone debt crisis.The Swiss government feared rising investment into their national currency was hampering its economy and exports, with the SNB explaining: “The minimum exchange rate was introduced during a period of exceptional overvaluation of the Swiss franc and an extremely high level of uncertainty on the financial markets. This exceptional and temporary measure protected the Swiss economy from serious harm.” At the start of 2015, the SNB decided their franc was in a much healthier environment, and not as overvalued as previously – resulting in the decision to abandon the euro peg, thereby sending the EUR/CHF smashing the 1.2 level.The crash caused immense losses to both traders and forex brokers, with lots of brokers going out of business.Perhaps the most high-profile casualties being Alpari UK, along with FXCM and its subsequent bailout. For those brokers that survived, they had to no choice but to cease trading on all CHF pairs. With the euro peg was in place, it was not uncommon for traders to use this to their advantage, buying EUR/CHF as price neared 1.2000 levels. Traditionally, EUR/CHF is seen as a decent candidate for scalping, due to its relatively predictable price action (SNB flash crash notwithstanding), and stable spread. Trading the EUR/CHF however does generally require more patience compared to other pairs, thanks to its lesser volatility.

EUR/CHF is the currency pair encompassing the European Union’s single currency, the euro (symbol €, code EUR), and the Swiss franc of Switzerland (code CHF). The pair’s rate indicates how many Swiss francs are needed in order to purchase one euro. For example, when the EUR/CHF is trading at 1.1000, it means 1 euro is equivalent to 1.1 Swiss francs.  The euro (EUR) is the world’s second most traded currency, while the Swiss franc (CHF) is the world’s sixth most traded currency, resulting in a comparatively liquid trading pair. Swiss National Bank CrisisThe EUR/CHF is most commonly defined by the events of 15th of January, 2015 – the date on which the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to lift the cap imposed on the Swiss Franc from 2011.This was set to a maximum of just over 0.83 euros, meaning the EUR/CHF would not be allowed to fall below 1.2.  The reason why the cap was imposed in the first place was sparked by the Eurozone debt crisis.The Swiss government feared rising investment into their national currency was hampering its economy and exports, with the SNB explaining: “The minimum exchange rate was introduced during a period of exceptional overvaluation of the Swiss franc and an extremely high level of uncertainty on the financial markets. This exceptional and temporary measure protected the Swiss economy from serious harm.” At the start of 2015, the SNB decided their franc was in a much healthier environment, and not as overvalued as previously – resulting in the decision to abandon the euro peg, thereby sending the EUR/CHF smashing the 1.2 level.The crash caused immense losses to both traders and forex brokers, with lots of brokers going out of business.Perhaps the most high-profile casualties being Alpari UK, along with FXCM and its subsequent bailout. For those brokers that survived, they had to no choice but to cease trading on all CHF pairs. With the euro peg was in place, it was not uncommon for traders to use this to their advantage, buying EUR/CHF as price neared 1.2000 levels. Traditionally, EUR/CHF is seen as a decent candidate for scalping, due to its relatively predictable price action (SNB flash crash notwithstanding), and stable spread. Trading the EUR/CHF however does generally require more patience compared to other pairs, thanks to its lesser volatility.
Read this Term
on the daily chart below, after it failed on it’s move below the parity level at 1.0000 earlier this month (the low came in at 0.9971 – PS the SNB was also reportedly supporting the market as well), the price of the pair moved higher toward the falling 100 day MA (blue line currently at 1.0387).

Sellers leaned against that MA on March 17 and again during Tuesday’s trading this week.

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The price has rotated back toward the broken 38.2% at 1.02155 (of the move down from the Feb high). Below that levelare swing lows between 1.01858 and 1.01938 (see red numbered circles). A move below that area would take the price of the EURCHF into the extreme lows that saw the pair tumble below 1.0000 to 0.9971 low.

EURCHF

EURCHF moves toward lows from last week.
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A.R Chowdhury

A.R Chowdhury

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UPDATE EURUSD Technicals: EURUSD bounces off the 38.2% of the trend move today

GBPUSD's run to the upside stalled after break of the 200 hour MA

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