As the dollar index cracks the 100.00 level, the USDJPY is also moving to a new high for the day. However, it is still short of the high from March at 125.093. The high price just reached 124.497. The USDPJY is working on the 6th consecutive day to the upside. The move higher took the price from a low on March 31 at 121.27 to the high today near 124.40 (313 pips higher).
Drilling to hourly chart below, the rise to the upside this week, has seen the pair stay above the 200 hour MA (green line) along the way. ON Monday and again on Tuesday, the lows for the day stalled at/near the 200 hour MA. That kept the buyers in control, and contribute to the push higher.
There has been up and down consolidation over the last two trading days, but the price today broke above the swing highs near 124.035, and is seeing more momentum currently.
Close risk in the USDJPY would now be eyed near the 124.035 level (call it 124.00). I would think a move back below that old ceiling from Wednesday and Thursday (now a floor) would not be good for the “break buyers”, and would likely see selling on a break below that level, with a move back down toward the 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart below).
Absent a move below 124.00, and the buyers are more in control with the high for the year as the next major target ahead (although still is 60 pips away.
Closer intraday risk will now be the swing high going back to March 29 at 124.29.
Helping the move to the upside now is a move higher in US yields: