Now there has been ups and downs – especially on Wednesday and Thursday – but the highs have seen limits. Yesterday and on Wednesday, the highs for the day stalled near the swing lows from March 28th. The consolidation also allowed for the 100 hour MA (blue line) to move lower and start to catch up to the price. Yesterday, the price did get close to that MA (blue line), but the sellers leaned, pushed lower, and the price is now moving further away from the MA increasing the sellers control.
The EURUSD pair is continuing to look toward the swing lows from March at 1.0819 and 1.0805.
The close risk intraday will now be the lows from Wednesday and Thursday between 1.0863 and 1.0873. The price did move above that area earlier today, but the recent run lower has now put some room between those lows and the price.
Traders – selling on the break – will not want to see the price move back above those levels. A move above would also put into jeopardy the lower close for the 7th day. The close yesterday was at 1.0878. Move above 1.08728 and then 1.0878 and sellers at the low, might look to cover ahead of the weekend.
If short from above, the 100 hour MA (blue line currently at 1.0915 and moving lower) is a more conservative risk level. That moving average would need to be broken to hurt the longer term bias, with a move above the 1.09384 to 1.0944 wing area another hurdle (see red numbered circles) on the progression higher.
For now, however, those targets are in the rear view mirror. Morevoer, the sellers are exerting more control on the break to new lows for the week.