Buyers make another play but momentum needed.
The USDJPY trades back above its 100 hour MA at 107.262. It is also above a swing level at the 107.22 level (see green numbered circles).
The buyers are making a play above the 100 hour MA. However, if the pair is to go higher, getting and staying above the high from Friday matched by the high today at 107.56 is also needed.
The buyers at the open of trading today tried to extend higher and away from the 100 hour MA, but when the price reached the Friday high, the buyers could not muster any more momentum. That was a disappointment. The price fell.
This move above the 100 hour moving average is the 2nd try. Admittedly, the momentum to the upside is limited. After all the prices has traded above its 100 hour moving average for the last 7 hours, and the momentum has not been able to take it to the high price for the day. So there is that 50-50 feeling especially with stocks and yields lower (can the USDJPY rally with each lower?).
The potential good news is that the Empire manufacturing index came in much better-than-expected (good news for the USDJPY typically),and the E-mini’s are off there lows for the day and trading steady in the premarket New York trading. So there is no further weakness in stocks.
We may have to see how markets react when the major indices open up at the bottom of the hour.