The USDCAD has been trading above and below the 200 day MA over the first two days of the week. The MA comes in at 1.26081. The current price is below the level, but moved above the level on 4 separate hourly bars today, and a number of bars yesterday and on Friday. Most of the price action over the last 3 days has been below 1.2620 to 1.2626. The last two days have stayed below that area.
The falling 100 hour MA (blue line at 1.26248) is now in that area and increases the areas importance as a bullish above/bearish below barometer going forward. Buyers need to get above the 200 day MA AND the swing area.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart below, the ups and downs around the 200 day MA is nothing new. Back in January, the price action was also up and down around that MA level (for 8 days), before giving up on the downside, and moving back higher. The current ups and downs are in day number 3. The sellers (USD buyers) have their shot, but are so far, just experiencing some graze wounds and also misses. There is no firm commitment to the selling.
Get above the 200 day MA at 1.2608, and the swing area up to 1.2626 and the buyers have a stronger leg to stand on. Absent that, and the sellers remain more in control despite the ups and downs.