The EURUSD has seen up and down saw-tooth pattern in the trading today with an small upside bias.
The pair closed near 1.0854 and is currently trading at 1.0893. The price reached a high of 1.09239 in the last hour, which took out an earlier high at 1.0921 but only by a couple pips.
Moreover, the rise fell short of recent swing highs between 1.09244 to 1.09431 (see red numbered circles and the yellow area). Getting above that area would be the minimum if the buyers are to take more control. Stay below and the buyers are not simply not winning. The sellers are still holding the stronger hand.
On the downside, the price is back down testing the 100/200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. Move below would hurt the short term bias for the pair.
Taking a broader look at the hourly chart, the price action is largely in favor of the sellers. However, the price has been consolidating near the cycle lows.
The consolidation has allowed for the falling 100 hour MA to catch up to the price as a result, and is at 1.0974 now. That is also near the 50% of the last trend leg lower from the 1.11429 high (move from 1.11429 to 1.08051).
If the price is able to get above 1.0943 target on the 5-minute, that 100 hour MA and retracement will be the next upside targets for the pair. The price of the EURUSD has not traded measurably above its 100 hour MA since Feb 23rd.
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