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Home ANALYSIS

The GBP is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the NA session begins

A.R Chowdhury by A.R Chowdhury
March 15, 2022
Reading Time: 9 mins read
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The GBP is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the NA session begins

USD

The strongest to weakest of the major currencies

As the North American session begins, the GBP is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest . The pound’s rise was helped by stronger jobs and wage data with the jobless rate falling below its pre-pandemic level (3.9%), and average earnings growing at an accelerated pace and above expectations (4.8% versus 4.6%). The German ZEW economic sentiment index plunged to -39.3 from 54.3 last month on the Russian invasion news. The USD is mostly lower with small gains versus the CHF and the CAD.

China concerns are increasingly on the “:wall of worry” with stocks moving lower once again on the back of the Covid lockdowns in major industrial centers. The Shanghai composite index fell -4.95%. The Hang Seng index fell -5.72%. US/China meetings did little to appease concerns about China support of the Russian invasion (which could ultimately to China sanctions). Meanwhile in Ukraine fighting continues as meetings between Ukraine and Russia yielded little results yesterday. Ukraine’s Zelensky said that meetings will continue today which he cited is a positive development. Time will tell.

Ahead of the Fed decision on Wednesday, US stocks are marginally higher (erasing the earlier losses). The FOMC is expected to increase rates by 25 basis points but could lean toward 50 basis points sooner than expected in the future. The Fed is likely to increase its dot plot tightenings for 2022 to 4 or most likely (?) 5. Private economists and the market is up toward seven as inflation continues to be a concern.

Helping the inflation story however, is oil prices which are lower once again in trading today. After reaching $130 last week the price has now dip back below the $100 level on demand concerns from the China lockdown, and perhaps on the sticker shock from the spike in gasoline price rises globally. Crude oil is currently down around -7.8% at $95.08. Gold is also lower after trading as high as $2070.42 last week. It is back down and moving toward $1900 again. The low price from 2022 comes in at $1778.50. The current price is near the 50% midpoint of the low to high price range (midpoint at $1924.19).

A snapshot of the market is showing:

  • Spot  gold 
    Gold

    Gold is the most widely traded and important commodity. Prized for its historical importance and used for trading an exchange of goods, the gold market today is estimated at nearly $2.4 trillion.The value of gold fluctuates constantly, as it trades on public exchanges where it has a price that is determined by supply and demand. Gold has historically had tremendous significance and even today is extremely sought after. Gold has been used as a currency as it doesn’t corrode, and the material allows for some absorption of light creating a yellow glow, which lends the name yellow metal.Ultimately, institutional and retail investors buy and sell gold contracts or physical gold, thus creating the demand and supply flow.This can be pure speculation, to acquire or distribute physical gold, or as a hedge for commercial application. For day-traders, the purpose of trading gold is to profit from its daily price movements.How to Trade GoldDay-trading gold is speculating on its short-term price movements. Of note, physical gold is not actually handled or taken possession of, rather the transactions take place electronically and only profits or losses are reflected in the trading account.There are a number of ways to ultimately trade gold. Retail brokers typically offer exposure to gold through contracts-for-difference (CFDs).Beyond retail brokers, the main way to trade gold is via a futures contract. This represents an agreement to buy or sell something, i.e. gold at a future date. Buying a gold futures contract doesn’t mean you actually have to take possession of the physical commodity.Day traders close out all contracts (trades) each day and make a profit based on the difference between the price they bought the contract and the price they sold it at. However, on a futures exchange, gold moves in $0.10 increments only. This increment is known as a tick. It is the smallest movement a futures contract can make. If you buy or sell a futures contract, how many ticks the price moves away from your entry price determines your profit or loss.

    Gold is the most widely traded and important commodity. Prized for its historical importance and used for trading an exchange of goods, the gold market today is estimated at nearly $2.4 trillion.The value of gold fluctuates constantly, as it trades on public exchanges where it has a price that is determined by supply and demand. Gold has historically had tremendous significance and even today is extremely sought after. Gold has been used as a currency as it doesn’t corrode, and the material allows for some absorption of light creating a yellow glow, which lends the name yellow metal.Ultimately, institutional and retail investors buy and sell gold contracts or physical gold, thus creating the demand and supply flow.This can be pure speculation, to acquire or distribute physical gold, or as a hedge for commercial application. For day-traders, the purpose of trading gold is to profit from its daily price movements.How to Trade GoldDay-trading gold is speculating on its short-term price movements. Of note, physical gold is not actually handled or taken possession of, rather the transactions take place electronically and only profits or losses are reflected in the trading account.There are a number of ways to ultimately trade gold. Retail brokers typically offer exposure to gold through contracts-for-difference (CFDs).Beyond retail brokers, the main way to trade gold is via a futures contract. This represents an agreement to buy or sell something, i.e. gold at a future date. Buying a gold futures contract doesn’t mean you actually have to take possession of the physical commodity.Day traders close out all contracts (trades) each day and make a profit based on the difference between the price they bought the contract and the price they sold it at. However, on a futures exchange, gold moves in $0.10 increments only. This increment is known as a tick. It is the smallest movement a futures contract can make. If you buy or sell a futures contract, how many ticks the price moves away from your entry price determines your profit or loss.
    Read this Term
    is down $-25.07 or -1.28% at $1925
  • Spot  silver 
    Silver

    Silver is a precious metal that is commonly traded on exchanges or through brokers. It is much more affordable than gold and thanks to its importance as an industrial metal as well as volatility, is widely traded.For precious metals traders, gold is a much more popular market. Big institutions buy gold as a currency hedge when real interest rates and yields on other assets become unacceptably low. Central banks will buy gold, not silver, as a reserve asset to diversify their currency exposure.Instead, silver functions more heavily as a commodity than a currency. Silver, also known as the white metal, is commonly linked with gold and the relationship between the two often dictates its price. The entire silver market is worth about only $540 billion currently, which makes it much smaller than other markets.Despite its smaller size in market share, the price of silver can oscillate strongly without a lot of money moving into it.The supply of silver grows only by only 1 to 3 percent each year, and about half the market is consumed through industrial use (unlike gold, which is more limited in how it’s used).As of August 2020, there are 19.2 billion ounces of silver reserves globally (meeting certain purity standards) against 1.83 billion ounces of gold reserves.How to Trade SilverThe most common way for retail traders to get exposure to silver is through exchange-traded-funds (ETFs) or contracts-for-difference (CFDs). Both are typical offerings at retail brokerages.Investing in silver CFDs saves you the inconvenience of paying for silver storage. Moreover, CFDs give you the opportunity to trade silver in both directions. Many retail investors prefer trading silver through CFDs with brokers as there is no large fee for physical delivery or commission that can erode potential profits.

    Silver is a precious metal that is commonly traded on exchanges or through brokers. It is much more affordable than gold and thanks to its importance as an industrial metal as well as volatility, is widely traded.For precious metals traders, gold is a much more popular market. Big institutions buy gold as a currency hedge when real interest rates and yields on other assets become unacceptably low. Central banks will buy gold, not silver, as a reserve asset to diversify their currency exposure.Instead, silver functions more heavily as a commodity than a currency. Silver, also known as the white metal, is commonly linked with gold and the relationship between the two often dictates its price. The entire silver market is worth about only $540 billion currently, which makes it much smaller than other markets.Despite its smaller size in market share, the price of silver can oscillate strongly without a lot of money moving into it.The supply of silver grows only by only 1 to 3 percent each year, and about half the market is consumed through industrial use (unlike gold, which is more limited in how it’s used).As of August 2020, there are 19.2 billion ounces of silver reserves globally (meeting certain purity standards) against 1.83 billion ounces of gold reserves.How to Trade SilverThe most common way for retail traders to get exposure to silver is through exchange-traded-funds (ETFs) or contracts-for-difference (CFDs). Both are typical offerings at retail brokerages.Investing in silver CFDs saves you the inconvenience of paying for silver storage. Moreover, CFDs give you the opportunity to trade silver in both directions. Many retail investors prefer trading silver through CFDs with brokers as there is no large fee for physical delivery or commission that can erode potential profits.
    Read this Term
    is down -$0.37 or -1.47% $24.65
  • WTI crude oil is down – $-7.56 or -7.53% at $95.47
  • Bitcoin is trading at $38,641 after trading as low as $38,142 and as high as $39,801 in overnight trading

IN the premarket for US stocks:

  • Dow is up 34 points after yesterday’s 1.05 point rise
  • S&P is up 4.75 points after yesterday’s -31.2 point decline
  • Nasdaq is up 47 points after yesterday’s -262.59 point decline

In the European stock market, the major indices are pointing higher in trading today:

  • German Dax -1.24%
  • France’s CAC -1.26%
  • UK FTSE 100, -0.86%
  • Spain’s Ibex -0.22%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.96%

In the US debt market, the snapshot shows a modest decline in rates after sharp gains over the last few days.

US yields

US yields are lower after sharp rises over the last few days

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European benchmark 10 year yields are also lower after the sharp fall in the German ZEW economic sentiment index.

European yields

European benchmark 10 year yields are lower
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A.R Chowdhury

A.R Chowdhury

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