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Home ANALYSIS

The AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day

A.R Chowdhury by A.R Chowdhury
April 1, 2022
Reading Time: 9 mins read
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The AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day

Forex

The strongest to weakest of the major currencies

The strongest weakest of the major  currencies 
Currencies

Currencies are a typically a form of money in wide circulation, being the primary medium of exchange with respect to buying and selling goods and services. These are often issued by a specific government or collection of governments, by way of paper notes and coins. Other forms of currencies include previous metals such as gold and silver, and digital currencies such as Bitcoin. Currencies serve as a backbone of the country’s or countries’ economy, due to the perception of value held by the population that uses that currency.For example, the United States dollar, (symbol $, code USD), or the British pound sterling, (symbol £, code GBP), also known as fiat money, since they are not linked to any specific asset, such as gold or silver. Such metals were traditionally used as the main method of payment, since they held real and actual value. Even after the introduction of paper notes, many countries maintained a gold standard for much of the 20th Century, meaning a unit of money could be exchanged for a fixed amount of gold. How to Trade Currencies?The modern world, with the invention of electronic networks, computers and the internet, has allowed the transfer of money to occur almost instantaneously. It has also spawned a new era in currencies, including digital money, such as Bitcoin and Litecoin. Not backed by any government, but based on a complex set of mathematical software algorithms, the ubiquity of the internet has generated interest and uptake of digital currencies, whilst providing relative anonymity. Digital currencies can now also be traded online, via exchanges and brokers, similar to trading foreign currencies, known as the foreign exchange market. Forex is the world’s largest market, with over $5 trillion turnover per day, where fiat, floating currencies are bought and sold against other currencies, such as the euro vs the dollar (EUR/USD), and the British pound vs the Japanese yen (GBP/JPY).

Currencies are a typically a form of money in wide circulation, being the primary medium of exchange with respect to buying and selling goods and services. These are often issued by a specific government or collection of governments, by way of paper notes and coins. Other forms of currencies include previous metals such as gold and silver, and digital currencies such as Bitcoin. Currencies serve as a backbone of the country’s or countries’ economy, due to the perception of value held by the population that uses that currency.For example, the United States dollar, (symbol $, code USD), or the British pound sterling, (symbol £, code GBP), also known as fiat money, since they are not linked to any specific asset, such as gold or silver. Such metals were traditionally used as the main method of payment, since they held real and actual value. Even after the introduction of paper notes, many countries maintained a gold standard for much of the 20th Century, meaning a unit of money could be exchanged for a fixed amount of gold. How to Trade Currencies?The modern world, with the invention of electronic networks, computers and the internet, has allowed the transfer of money to occur almost instantaneously. It has also spawned a new era in currencies, including digital money, such as Bitcoin and Litecoin. Not backed by any government, but based on a complex set of mathematical software algorithms, the ubiquity of the internet has generated interest and uptake of digital currencies, whilst providing relative anonymity. Digital currencies can now also be traded online, via exchanges and brokers, similar to trading foreign currencies, known as the foreign exchange market. Forex is the world’s largest market, with over $5 trillion turnover per day, where fiat, floating currencies are bought and sold against other currencies, such as the euro vs the dollar (EUR/USD), and the British pound vs the Japanese yen (GBP/JPY).
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ahead of the US jobs report at 8:30 AM ET, shows the AUD is the strongest while the JPY is the weakest. The USD is mixed with gains versus the JPY offset by declines versus the AUD. The gain in the CHF is offset by the decline in the NZD. The EUR, GBP and CAD are little changed.

The European  inflation 
Inflation

Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation.How Does Inflation Affect Forex?The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market.

Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation.How Does Inflation Affect Forex?The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market.
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data came in at a record level but was foreshadowed by Spanish and German inflation earlier this week. Moreover there is expected higher inflation going forward.

US yields are sharply higher, after three days of declines. The tenure yield is up to 2.40%, while the two year is at 2.38%. The two – 10 year spread is getting closer to the inversion level but still is a pip or two away from that inversion. Going negative is thought to be a precursor to a recession but not until further down the road.

Speaking of further down the road, the US jobs data – which is a lagging indicator – is expected to show another strong gain. The expectations are for a near 500K rise after last month 678K increase. The ADP report on Wednesday showed a gain of 455K, but the correlation has not been accurate of late. Market participants will be eyeing the labor force participation rate which came in at 62.3 percent last month. As inflation rises will people re- enter the workforce as their buying power deteriorates quickly. The unemployment rate is expected to come in at 3.7% versus 3.8% last month.

Crude oil prices are back below the $100 level after Pres. Biden announced a 1 million barrel per day SPR sale over the next six months. OPEC this week said that they would continue to stay on the 400 K production increases schedule. US Baker Hughes will be released later today. Pres. Biden is now urging US oil companies to pump more oil to help bring down oil prices.

US stocks are higher after two days of declines.

A snapshot of the markets as North American traders enter for the day shows:

  • Spot gold is trading down $-8.92 or -0.45% at $1927.54
  • Spot silver down $0.12 or -0.48% at $24.63
  • Spot crude oil is trading back below $100 at $98.56 that’s down $1.70 on the day
  • Bitcoin is trading lower at $45,100

In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are trading higher ahead of the jobs report and after a two day decline to and the calendar month and quarter:

  • Dow industrial average is up 206 points after yesterday’s -550.46 point decline
  • S&P index up 26 points after yesterday’s -72.04 point decline
  • NASDAQ index is up 108 points after yesterday’s -221.76 point decline

In the European equity markets, the major indices are mostly lower with the exception of the UK’s FTSE 100

  • German DAX, up 0.4%
  • France’s CAC, up 0.45%
  • UK’s FTSE 100 up 0.25%
  • Spain’s Ibex, up 0.75%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB up 0.85%

In the US debt market, US yields are sharply higher ahead of the jobs report. The yield curve continues to move toward parity with the two – 10 year spread basis point or so away from going inverted.

US yields

US yields are higher

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In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are higher as well but trading closer to their low levels.

European

European benchmark yields are higher
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A.R Chowdhury

A.R Chowdhury

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