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Home ANALYSIS

S&P moved above the 100 day MA today but backed off. Is it signaling a top?

A.R Chowdhury by A.R Chowdhury
March 28, 2022
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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S&P moved above the 100 day MA today but backed off. Is it signaling a top?

S&P

S&P on the daily chart

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The S&P index moved above its 100 day MA at 4545.61 earlier today, and also above its 61.8% retracement level at 4549.70. Those breaks have failed. The price is currently at 4528.41. The low reached 4517.69.

Has the broad market index reached a peak?

Looking at the daily chart above, the 100 day MA (blue line) was broken to the downside back on January 19 near 4577 and fell to a low of 4222. The subsequent snap back rally moved back above the 100 day MA for one day on February 2, and rotated lower again. It then traded back higher, and closed above the 100 day MA for another day on February 9, and failed the next day. That was the last move above the 100 day MA until today.

The move to (and above) the 100 day MA today is another try. The price rise took the index price above the MA, but once again, the break failed.

The point is, the 100 day MA has been broken 4 times in the last 2+ months without much momentum at all. So YES, there is risk another peak has been made for now at least.

What would change that bias is a move and close above the MA at 4545.62 today. Absent that, and the buyers had their shot. They buyers missed on that shot.

The 200 day MA (green line) at 4478.68 would be the next major downside target on more momentum to the downside for equities now.

/ EURUSD 
EUR/USD

The EUR/USD is the currency pair encompassing the European Union’s single currency, the euro (symbol €, code EUR), and the dollar of the United States (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many euros are needed in order to purchase one dollar. For example, when the EUR/USD is trading at 1.2, it means 1 euro is equivalent to 1.2 dollars.  Why the EUR/USD is the Most Popular Trading PairCompared to all tradable currencies, the euro (EUR) is the world’s second most traded currency, behind only the US dollar. This currency pair is the most traded and liquid currency pair on the market.As the most popular trading pair, the EUR/USD is a staple of every brokerage offering and often has some of the lowest spreads relative to other pairs. Ultimately, the currency follows the two most economic blocs in the world and sees the most volume for this reason.The EUR/USD has a wide range of factors that influence its rates. From the EUR side, economic data in the Eurozone as well as internal factors in the bloc can easily impact rates. Even small member states can effectively weigh on the EUR, as seen in Greece during bailout talks in the 2010s. Alternatively, developments in the United States and the Federal Reserve commonly affect the EUR/USD. Many examples include the bailouts during the Financial crisis, tax cuts during the Trump Administration, and Covid-19 relief measures, among others.

The EUR/USD is the currency pair encompassing the European Union’s single currency, the euro (symbol €, code EUR), and the dollar of the United States (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many euros are needed in order to purchase one dollar. For example, when the EUR/USD is trading at 1.2, it means 1 euro is equivalent to 1.2 dollars.  Why the EUR/USD is the Most Popular Trading PairCompared to all tradable currencies, the euro (EUR) is the world’s second most traded currency, behind only the US dollar. This currency pair is the most traded and liquid currency pair on the market.As the most popular trading pair, the EUR/USD is a staple of every brokerage offering and often has some of the lowest spreads relative to other pairs. Ultimately, the currency follows the two most economic blocs in the world and sees the most volume for this reason.The EUR/USD has a wide range of factors that influence its rates. From the EUR side, economic data in the Eurozone as well as internal factors in the bloc can easily impact rates. Even small member states can effectively weigh on the EUR, as seen in Greece during bailout talks in the 2010s. Alternatively, developments in the United States and the Federal Reserve commonly affect the EUR/USD. Many examples include the bailouts during the Financial crisis, tax cuts during the Trump Administration, and Covid-19 relief measures, among others.
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A.R Chowdhury

A.R Chowdhury

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