The S&P index moved above its 100 day MA at 4545.61 earlier today, and also above its 61.8% retracement level at 4549.70. Those breaks have failed. The price is currently at 4528.41. The low reached 4517.69.
Has the broad market index reached a peak?
Looking at the daily chart above, the 100 day MA (blue line) was broken to the downside back on January 19 near 4577 and fell to a low of 4222. The subsequent snap back rally moved back above the 100 day MA for one day on February 2, and rotated lower again. It then traded back higher, and closed above the 100 day MA for another day on February 9, and failed the next day. That was the last move above the 100 day MA until today.
The move to (and above) the 100 day MA today is another try. The price rise took the index price above the MA, but once again, the break failed.
The point is, the 100 day MA has been broken 4 times in the last 2+ months without much momentum at all. So YES, there is risk another peak has been made for now at least.
What would change that bias is a move and close above the MA at 4545.62 today. Absent that, and the buyers had their shot. They buyers missed on that shot.
The 200 day MA (green line) at 4478.68 would be the next major downside target on more momentum to the downside for equities now.
