The price action did see a lower open but a climbed back higher into the early European trading hours. The price moved above its 100 hour moving average currently at 1.13229 (blue line in the chart above), but after trading above and below that moving average level for a few hours, the buyers have turned back to sellers. The price has been able to remain below the 100 hour moving average over the last six or so trading hours. Stay below keeps the technical tilt in the direction of the sellers/downside.
On the downside a swing area between 1.3078 and 1.30878 will be targeted. Below that, the lows from last week between 1.3049 and 1.3059 will be eyed.
On a failure of the 100 hour moving average, the downward sloping trendline (see blue numbered circles) on the hourly chart cuts across near 1.3145 (and moving lower). A move above that level, the 50% midpoint of the range since March 11 at 1.3148 and the 200 hour MA at 1.31439 would tilt the bias more in favor of the buyers. The cluster of technical resistance levels up to 1.3148 would be a key barometer for buyers and sellers on more upside momentum today.
For now, the sellers below the 100 hour moving average, remain as the more dominant bias although there is more work to be done..
PS The high to low trading ranges only 54 pips today. The average is 99 pips over the last 22 trading days (around the month of trading). So there is room to roam in either direction on a break to new lows or highs.
PSS The other nuance of note is the price highs have been lower over the last three trading days (thursday, Friday and today). The high from Friday reached 1.3147.