The EURUSD as move lower after the FOMC decided that if you can’t beat them join them and raised their expectations for a rate hikes to 7 from 3 in December.
The move to the downside has been fairly modest however (around 25 pips). The move to the downside has pushed price back to the 200 hour moving average at 1.09519. A move below that level would have traders targeting 1.09242 and 1.0899 . Move below that level and the price would be in the lower extreme area that saw the low price from March reach 1.0805.
Hold support, and more momentum above the 100 hour moving average at 1.0966 could see a rotation back to the upside. The upper swing area comes between 1.1019 and 1.10429.
Rates have moved higher which should be dollars supported. The two year is up to 1.979% which is near the target rate for the end of the year. Is that enough for now? Is the Fed going “fast break the other way” (i.e., the worst case scenario) and instead of dialing up their forecasts have the opportunity to dial down their forecast after slower growth starts to show up?
Those questions are certainly something that the market will ponder going forward.
