Two days in a row
The price of the EURUSD fell below its 200 hour moving average early in the New York session, only to fail on a break. That is the 2nd day in a row that the price of failed to solicit momentum selling on the break of the 200 hour moving average.
Prior to the yesterday’s break the price has not traded below its 200 hour moving average since July 10. UGH.
The move off of the low has taken the price back toward its 100 hour moving average at 1.17869. Earlier in the day the price failed on its break above that moving average (what is going on). The pair at the high extended up to swing levels between 1.1801 and 1.18089, and found sellers there.
When the price action is up and down like it has been….When you see failures, it suggests “the market” is not sure of the next move. Ultimately, there will be a decision. Remember as well that prior to the last 3 days, the price have been trending to the upside. As mentioned the 200 hour moving average had not been reached since July 10. It wasn’t really until yesterday that the 100 hour moving average was broken as well (blue line). Trend transitions to non trend, and that is what we are seeing.
The correction lower has only made it to around the 38.2% retracement. So we can’t give up on the upside. Putting it another way the sellers are not really taking too much control. Nevertheless with the consolidation before the peak, and the consolidation now after the peak, it does have head and shoulders tendencies. Should the recent lows ultimately be broken, it could lead to further momentum selling. Be aware but also understand that the sellers are not winning too many battles.