Looking at the hourly chart, the pair initially moved a bit higher in the Asian session, staying above the 200 hour MA (green line currently at 1.4715) in the process, but then moved below the MA level and started the descent to the downside. The low price just reached 1.4549. That low is below the March 7 swing low at 1.45626, but above the March 28 low at 1.45342.
Moving below the March 28 low at 1.45342 would take the price to the lowest level since July 2017 (the weekly chart below).
There is a low risk trading opportunity for the buyers against the swing low area. If support can hold, it could break the back of the trend move lower today and lead to a corrective move to the upside, with limited risk for the dip buyers against the 1.45342 level.
What would give buyers more confidence?
Looking at the 5- minute chart below, the price consolidated between 1.4638 and 1.4662 before it’s last leg move to the downside today. The 38.2 – 50% retracement of that move to the downside comes in at 1.4592 up to 1.4605. That is the correction zone is that if the price can move back above intraday, it would give the buyers more comfort that the low is in place. After that a move above the falling 100 bar moving average would be the next target.
Absent that, and the sellers/trend remains in firm control.
Of note on the five minute chart is the price consolidation above and below the 100 and 200 bar moving averages in the Asian session, gave way and the price stay below those moving averages paving the way for the downside potential. That potential showed a strong bias to the downside as the selling accelerated.
