EUR/USD keeps within a 14 pips range so far today
The pair is little changed and so is the dollar, with only commodity currencies showing any poise to move in European morning trade.
EUR/USD is trading within a range of 1.1734 and 1.1748 currently as there isn’t much to work with besides calmer risk tones, which is pretty much an extension of yesterday’s conviction in the market.
European indices are keeping slight gains while 10-year Treasury yields are up just 0.8 bps to 1.263% on the session.
Going back to the EUR/USD chart above, buyers are in near-term control upon a push above the key hourly moving averages but any upside momentum remains unconvincing.
I’d say there needs to be a turn above 1.1800 to really get any fresh upside leg in the pair but even then, the 30 July high at around 1.1900 adds another key resistance point.
From a fundamental perspective, the euro area economy is still trying to hold on to the summer optimism going into the latter stages of Q3 but the momentum is fading alongside the outlook as delta variant concerns weigh.
The same can be said for the US but with the tiebreaker being the ECB-Fed policy divergence, it’s hard to imagine EUR/USD sustaining any major upside in the medium-to-long term as long as the Fed stays on course to taper by year-end or early next year.