Yesterday, the RBA shifted their bias more toward tightenings earlier vs later as they took out the word“patient” with regard to inflation. Expectations are now for a hike by June.
The shift sent the AUDUSD trending to the upside yesterday, and that move had the pair moving above a swing area on the daily chart between 0.7540 to 0.7560. The price squeezed up through the 61.8% retracement at 0.76094 and up to another upside target at 0.76449. The high price reached 0.76607, but ran out of steam.
Stocks started to move lower, The USD started to move higher after Vice Chair nominee Brainard’s comments shifted the Fed to an even more hawkish stance. In the AUDUSD, the focus shifted from the AUD higher to the USD higher.
Today, the price is lower and the price has moved into a swing area on the daily chart between 0.7540 and 0.7560. The low reached 0.7550 so far. The area is a key area. A broken ceiling becomes a floor. Staying above the floor is important..
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the pair is also approaching the rising 100 hour MA at 0.7539 currently. That too increases the daily swing area’s importance (the daily low of the swing area is at 0.7540). A break below the 100 hour MA would next target the 200 hour MA at 0.75209. Move below both (and stay below) and the sellers can further probe the downside.
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