The price of WTI crude oil futures are settling at $106.19. That’s down $3.33 or -3.04%
The high price reached $109.76. The low reached $101.53. The settle is near the middle of that range.
Looking at the daily chart, the price moved below the 100 day MA (and an upward sloping trend line) near $104.62. The rebound into the close took the price back above that MA level. That MA is near the middle of what has been home to most of the price action since the start of March (see red box). That box runs from $93.14 to around $116.38 (wide but real).
There were two runs to the upside. The one back in March, saw the price shoot up to the high for the year. The more recent extension above the area, moved up to $123 area, before backing back to the downside.
On the downside, the rising 200 day MA (green line in the chart above) is making it’s way toward the lower extreme at $93.14. If the price of crude oil were to move lower from here (get and stay below the 100 day MA), that 200 day MA would move closer to the lower extreme of the “red box”, increasing that levels importance from a technical perspective.
The price action and failure on the 2nd run higher, suggests that the peak may indeed be in place. Lower demand from a weakening global economy may save the supply issue problem somewhat, but the winds from war are still an issue (and hopefully there are no hurricanes disruptiong supply as well this year).
That is why there are technicals which help to connect the price action to the storyline. The uncertainty is also why the low to high trading range is justifiable.