50% of the move down from March 24 high tested and held at 108.84
The USDJPY moved up strongly yesterday which also saw the pair move above its converged 100 and 200 day MAs at 108.30 area (see 4-hour chart below). The next major target after that break came in at the 50% retracement of the move down from the March 24 high at 108.844. The high price in the early Asian session reached precisely at that 108.844 level (see post from yesterda
y outlining the target)
The price action since the high has seen more up and down trading. The better than expected ADP is not leading to the more risk on flows out of the JPY so far (into the JPY pairs like the USDJPY, EURJPY or GBPJPY or AUDJPY). The market is a bit tired and looking for the next shove.
Having said that, looking at the hourly chart below, the corrective price action remains above the 100 and 200 day MA, along with the 38.2% of the move up from yesterday. Those levels all come between 108.285 to 108.333 (see yellow area in the chart below. As a result, buyers are still holding the stronger hand, but with the topside resistance at the 50% creating a buy and sell battle between levels.
Drilling down further to the the 5 minute chart below, the price action has been above and below the 100 and 200 bar MAs at 108.64-656 currently (see blue and green lines). Those MAs seem to help define the shorter term up and down bias. We are currently below those MA (so intraday a little negative), but if the price moves above, that bias could/should see a shift back to the upside/bulls. On the downside, there is support ahead of the 100/200 day MAs at 108.41-46 area.