The USDJPY fell below its 100 hour moving average yesterday (blue line) and has been able to stay below that level since the break (on Tuesday it also fell below the level but failed on the break).
The subsequent move lower during yesterday’s trade, also dipped below a upward sloping trendline on the hourly chart above, but found support buyers against its 200 hour moving average (green line). The price settled yesterday between the 200 hour moving average below and the broken trendline above.
In trading today, the initial Asian move was to the upside, but sellers leaned against the underside of the broken trendline and ahead of the flattening 100 hour moving average (currently at 1.22635). Bearish.
The subsequent fall to the downside did see the price breach below its 200 hour moving average (green line), but the first dip stalled ahead of the low from yesterday at 1.2530 (the low reach 1.2533 today) and also the 38.2% retracement of the trend move up from the March 4 low at 121.101. Moving below the 38.2% retracement is the minimum retracement target if the sellers are to take more control. Absent that, and the correction is a plain-vanilla variety.
The current price is trying to break back below the 200 hour moving average for the second time (at 121.748). The same targets remain in play with the low from yesterday 121.30 and the 38.2% retracement 121.10 as the next key targets. If the price can stay below the 200 hour moving average, that would be the best case scenario for sellers looking for more downside. A move back above continues the battle between resistance above, and support below.
