The USDJPY has seen the price rise 14 of the last 16 days. Today, it is looking like a down day as trader flows head more into the European currencies (especially the EUR) on peace hope in Ukraine.
The USDJPY’s pair move to the downside today, has seen the price move below the 38.2-50% of the most recent trend move higher (see hourly chart below). That area comes between 123.13 to 123.59. The low price reached to 122.48 before bouncing. At the low the pair got within about 11 or so pips of the rising 100 hour MA. The price of the USDJPY has not traded below its 100 hour moving average since March 7.
The USDJPY has moved up from the March 4 low of 114.642 to the high price reached yesterday at 125.193. That move of took the price up 1055 pips over 16 trading days (a little over three weeks). The correction over the last day has taken the price down around 260 pips of that move. However, unless the price can move below the 100 hour moving average, the sellers may be winning a battle and the trend-like momentum may now be more balanced, but the sellers are not close to winning the war.
There are other support targets at the rising trend line on the hourly chart at 121.78 and the 200 hour moving average at 120.976 (and rising). Get below those levels, and the sellers start to make more headway on the war.
Correction time? It seems that way.
Watch 123.132 (50% on the hourly) as close resistance. Stay below and sellers are comfortable for a change.
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