Looking at the daily chart, the price yesterday – and for most of the day today – has been able to stay below a swing area between 0.9365 and 0.93748. I would expect that area to be a barometer for the buyers and sellers. Move above is more bullish, stay below is more bearish.
What is worrying on the downside, is that drilling to the hourly chart below, the price action today shows that the sellers had their shot below a cluster support, and it did not go all that well.
Specifically, the price was able to fall below its 200 hour moving average (green line) at 0.93433, the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the March 1 low at 0.9341, and also the low from yesterday’s trade at 0.93346. The breaking of the cluster support should have led to further downside momentum, but instead saw a snapback rally.
The corrective high has remained below the high for the day and also comfortably below the 100 hour moving average above at 0.9387 (the high price reached 0.9372 which is below the high for the day at 0.93818). So it is not all so bad for the sellers at least for the time period.
However a move back below the aforementioned cluster of support levels would still be needed to increase the bearish bias going forward.
USDCHF trade between 100/200 hour moving averages
What would hurt the bears comfort would be a move back above 0.93748 from the daily chart, and also back above the 100 hour moving average at 0.93873. Breaks of those levels would put a dagger in the hearts of the sellers looking for more downside momentum.
