The USDCHF has just broken back below it’s 100 hour MA (and rising) at 0.93284. In the process, the price has also moved below the 50% midpoint of the move down from the March 16 high at 0.93268 as well. The combination of technical levels, tilts the intraday short term bias back in the favor of the sellers.
Earlier today, the price in Asian session did find support buyers against the 100 hour moving average level. Holding that moving average level led to a move higher with the price reaching a peak in the European session. That high, however, stalled just ahead of the high from Friday’s trade. The high today reached 0.93713. The high from Friday reached just a few pips higher at 0.93734. Moreover the high from Friday was right near the high from March 29 near the same level.
The inability to get above that ceiling level turned buyers and the sellers, which has culminated in the breaking of the 100 hour moving average just recently.
What next?
Getting below 0.93164 would be the next target on further downside momentum. That is the low of a swing area from Wednesday and Thursday’s trade
Traders will now use the 100 hour moving average and the 50% midpoint as close risk (it is a break after all). I would expect intraday traders playing the break to give it a few pips above the 100 hour moving average for risk.
On the downside, breaking 0.93164 would have traders looking toward 0.9295 area (call it 0.9300). Below that is the flat/rising 200 hour moving average at 0.93883. The price moved above the 200 hour moving average on Tuesday of last week, and stayed above that as it tilted the bias back in the buyers direction.
