Looking at the hourly chart below, the USDCAD price tried to move above its 200 hour moving average (green line) on Friday and again yesterday only to fail (first trades above the 200 hour moving average since March 15).The price closed below its 100 hour moving average yesterday (blue line currently at 1.24928).
In the Asian session today, the high price stayed comfortably below the 100 hour moving average and sellers started to enter toward the end of the Asian session into the European session. The price fell below a swing area between 1.2463 and 1.24724 (that level is now a risk level for sellers – see red numbered circles). A retest of that area held resistance four hourly bars ago, and the price resumed its move to the downside over the last three hourly bars.
Risk levels now come against the prior low from last week at 1.24286. More conservative risk would be at the swing area between 1.2463 and 1.24724. Stay below each keeps the sellers in control and the push to the downside can continue toward the daily downside targets.