Swing area below at 1.2638 to 1.26527 eyed below
The USDCAD moved sharply higher yesterday in early North American trading. And in the process extended above its 50% midpoint of the range since the August 20 high. That level comes in at 1.27204. The high price squeezed up to 1.27611, but just as fast as it went up, it came back down with the same speed. The price bottomed near the low reached seconds after the BOC interest rate decision, and the price moved higher into the close (and near mid range).
Today, the move to the upside continued with the price extending back toward the 50% retracement. The high for the day did reach above the midpoint level to a high of 1.27265. But the price has since moved back to the downside and returned to the broken 38.2% retracement 1.2666. That is above a lower swing area between 1.2638 and 1.26527. The price is now negative on the day in what is a up and down session so far.
The 38.2% retracement will be a close barometer. Buyers against the level will likely tilt to sellers on a dipped back below the level. On a move below, the 1.2638 to 1.26527 is the next hurdle. Move below and the rising 100 and 200 hour moving averages at 1.26014 (call it 1.2600) would be the next major target.
Conversely if support is able to hold here getting back above 1.2706 (see green numbered circles) and the 50% at 1.27204 would be the upside hurdles.