The USDCA has pushed above its 100 hour MA and looks to close above that MA for the first time since March 15th when the MA was at 1.2787. The current MA is at 1.25433.
The pair to the upside has been helped by tumbling oil prices. The price of crude oil is trading at $105.39. That’s down about $8.45 on the day.
The run to the upside comes after the pair has fallen for 9 consecutive days. That run has taken the price from a high of 1.28706 to the low reached on Friday at 1.24645 (406 pips in 9 days). The low took the price to the lowest level since January 20, but fell short of the low for the year at 1.24476, that was reached on January 19.
The North American session started with the pair stuck in a 31 pip trading range (very low range).
Looking at the hourly chart today, the price tried to initially move above the Thursday low at 1.2508. Recall that on Friday, the price traded above and below that level for a couple hours before breaking below, and increasing the momentum to the downside on its way to the session low at 1.24645 (lowest level since January 20).
However, in the last hour, the price was finally able to move above that old low, and saw buyers turn to sellers, extending the trading range from its low levels in the process (the average trading range over the last 22 days has been 97 pips. So there was room to roam).
The momentum higher continued up and has now moved to – and through – the 100 hour moving average 1.25437. The current price is now cracking above a swing area between 1.25616 and 1.25696. The next key target comes in against the falling 200 hour moving average 1.25886 (green line in the chart above).
There should be sellers on the first test of the 200 hour moving average) is also near the swing high from Thursday’s trade. Over a move above would have traders targeting its 200 day moving average 1.26114. The price traded above and below that 200 day moving average from March 18 through March 22, before choosing to continue the downside path.
Close risk for shorts now comes in at 1.2561 followed by the 100 hour moving average 1.25437. A move below the 100 hour moving average would certainly ruin the buyers day, and would swing the bias back to the downside.