The move higher has taken the price to 1.2774. Above that level, sits a swing area between 1.2782 and 1.27956 (see red numbered circles). Back on February 24, February 25 and February 28, the price did extend above that area, taking the pair outside of what had been an up and down trading range. However, momentum could not be sustained on each of the breaks, and the price ultimately pushed to the downside.
Last week, the price rotated back below its 100 and 200 hour moving averages, and sellers had their opportunity to extend outside of the lower end of the up and down trading range. However like the buyers, their efforts failed and helped to lead to the run back to the upside on Thursday and Friday.
Overall, the bias today is more bullish, but with the ups and downs seen since January 26, along with the failed breaks (both higher and lower) more recently, traders may look to sell against resistance with stops on a break above.
Watch the 1.27956 as a resistance ceiling with stops on a break above.
On the downside it will now take a move back below the 200 hour moving average followed by the 100 hour moving average to get sellers more excited and at the potential for another test of the lower swing area (green numbered circles)