The move lower in the Asian session could not be sustained however. and the price rotated back higher (and above the 200 hour MA level) in the early North American session. That move higher ended up near the 100 hour moving average (blue line).
That moving average was broken by a few pips but could not sustain momentum and the price settled the day “between the goal posts” defined by the 100 hour moving average above (blue line near 1.1039) and the 200 hour moving average below (green line near 1.10059).
Today, in the European session, the price has moved back below the 200 hour moving average at 1.10059 (green line in the chart above), and has been able to hold resistance against that level a couple hourly bars. Keeping below the 200 hour moving average keeps the sellers more control.
The price is currently trading around 1.0985 after reaching a low of 1.0974. That low was just above the 50% midpoint target of the move up from the March 7 low (that midpoint comes in at 1.0971).
Get below the 50% retracement and traders will start to next target the recent swing lows including:
Yesterday’s low at 1.0960.
1.09487 from March 16,
1.09242 from March 15 and
1.0899 from March 11 and March 14.
I hate to say it as it is repetitive of late, but a move back above the 200 hour moving average at 1.1093 would tilt the bias back more toward the buy side (close risk for sellers now), with the 100 hour moving average at 1.10393 as the next upside target. A move above the 100 hour moving average would open the door for further upside momentum.
For now however, the sellers are leaning against the 200 hour moving average and that puts them (i.e. the sellers) more in the driver’s seat for today.