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Home ANALYSIS

The JPY is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day

A.R Chowdhury by A.R Chowdhury
March 31, 2022
Reading Time: 9 mins read
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The strongest to weakest of the major currencies

As North American traders enter for the day, the JPY is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. The USD is leaning more to the upside with declines vs the JPY the only negative move. The greenback is higher vs the other major  currencies 
Currencies

Currencies are a typically a form of money in wide circulation, being the primary medium of exchange with respect to buying and selling goods and services. These are often issued by a specific government or collection of governments, by way of paper notes and coins. Other forms of currencies include previous metals such as gold and silver, and digital currencies such as Bitcoin. Currencies serve as a backbone of the country’s or countries’ economy, due to the perception of value held by the population that uses that currency.For example, the United States dollar, (symbol $, code USD), or the British pound sterling, (symbol £, code GBP), also known as fiat money, since they are not linked to any specific asset, such as gold or silver. Such metals were traditionally used as the main method of payment, since they held real and actual value. Even after the introduction of paper notes, many countries maintained a gold standard for much of the 20th Century, meaning a unit of money could be exchanged for a fixed amount of gold. How to Trade Currencies?The modern world, with the invention of electronic networks, computers and the internet, has allowed the transfer of money to occur almost instantaneously. It has also spawned a new era in currencies, including digital money, such as Bitcoin and Litecoin. Not backed by any government, but based on a complex set of mathematical software algorithms, the ubiquity of the internet has generated interest and uptake of digital currencies, whilst providing relative anonymity. Digital currencies can now also be traded online, via exchanges and brokers, similar to trading foreign currencies, known as the foreign exchange market. Forex is the world’s largest market, with over $5 trillion turnover per day, where fiat, floating currencies are bought and sold against other currencies, such as the euro vs the dollar (EUR/USD), and the British pound vs the Japanese yen (GBP/JPY).

Currencies are a typically a form of money in wide circulation, being the primary medium of exchange with respect to buying and selling goods and services. These are often issued by a specific government or collection of governments, by way of paper notes and coins. Other forms of currencies include previous metals such as gold and silver, and digital currencies such as Bitcoin. Currencies serve as a backbone of the country’s or countries’ economy, due to the perception of value held by the population that uses that currency.For example, the United States dollar, (symbol $, code USD), or the British pound sterling, (symbol £, code GBP), also known as fiat money, since they are not linked to any specific asset, such as gold or silver. Such metals were traditionally used as the main method of payment, since they held real and actual value. Even after the introduction of paper notes, many countries maintained a gold standard for much of the 20th Century, meaning a unit of money could be exchanged for a fixed amount of gold. How to Trade Currencies?The modern world, with the invention of electronic networks, computers and the internet, has allowed the transfer of money to occur almost instantaneously. It has also spawned a new era in currencies, including digital money, such as Bitcoin and Litecoin. Not backed by any government, but based on a complex set of mathematical software algorithms, the ubiquity of the internet has generated interest and uptake of digital currencies, whilst providing relative anonymity. Digital currencies can now also be traded online, via exchanges and brokers, similar to trading foreign currencies, known as the foreign exchange market. Forex is the world’s largest market, with over $5 trillion turnover per day, where fiat, floating currencies are bought and sold against other currencies, such as the euro vs the dollar (EUR/USD), and the British pound vs the Japanese yen (GBP/JPY).
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today. The NZDUSD has been trending to the downside today from the start of the session and has moved back below its 100/200 hour MAs which are converged at 0.6939 currently. The pair traded to the highest level since November 22 yesterday, taking out the double top near 0.6988 in the process (the high price reached 0.6997). However, momentum could not be sustained and the price closed off the old highs and continued that trend in trading today.

Although the USDJPY is fairly steady, the EURJPY has broken below its 100 hour moving average at 135.592 (trades at 135.26 currently). The break is the first with a close below the moving average since March 8.

GBPJPY has moved back below its 200 hour moving average near 160.23 (trades at 159.92 currently). The NZDJPY is also dipping below its 200 hour moving average and 84.478 for the first time since February 28.

Biden is said to announce a 1M BPD release from the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) for a six-month time period in an effort to bring down the price of oil. The planned move is working today with  crude oil 
Crude Oil

Crude oil is the most popular tradable instrument in the energy sector, offering exposure to global market conditions, geopolitical risk, and economics. The instrument is strategically relied upon and situated in the global economy. Crude oil has proven to be a unique option for traders given volatility and the efficacy of both swing trading and longer-term strategies. Despite its popularity, crude oil is a very complex investing instrument, given the litany of fluctuations in oil prices, risk, and impact of politics stemming from OPEC. Short for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC operates as an intergovernmental organization of 13 countries, helping set and dictate the global oil market.How to Trade Crude Oil Crude oil is most commonly traded as an exchange-traded fund (ETF) or through other instruments with exposure to it. This includes energy stocks, the USD/CAD, and other investing options. Crude oil itself is traded across a duality of markets, including the West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) and Brent crude. Brent is the more relied upon index in recent years, while WTI is more heavily traded across futures trading at the time of writing. Other than geopolitical events or decisions by OPEC, crude oil can move due to a variety of different ways.  The most basic is through simple supply and demand, which is affected by global output. Increased industrial output, economic prosperity, and other factors all play a role in crude prices. By extension, recessions, lockdowns, or other stifling factors can also influence crude prices. For example, an oversupply or mitigated demand due to the aforementioned factors would result in lower crude prices. This is due to traders selling crude oil futures or other instruments.  Should demand rise or production plateau, traders will bid increasingly on crude, whereby driving prices up.

Crude oil is the most popular tradable instrument in the energy sector, offering exposure to global market conditions, geopolitical risk, and economics. The instrument is strategically relied upon and situated in the global economy. Crude oil has proven to be a unique option for traders given volatility and the efficacy of both swing trading and longer-term strategies. Despite its popularity, crude oil is a very complex investing instrument, given the litany of fluctuations in oil prices, risk, and impact of politics stemming from OPEC. Short for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC operates as an intergovernmental organization of 13 countries, helping set and dictate the global oil market.How to Trade Crude Oil Crude oil is most commonly traded as an exchange-traded fund (ETF) or through other instruments with exposure to it. This includes energy stocks, the USD/CAD, and other investing options. Crude oil itself is traded across a duality of markets, including the West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) and Brent crude. Brent is the more relied upon index in recent years, while WTI is more heavily traded across futures trading at the time of writing. Other than geopolitical events or decisions by OPEC, crude oil can move due to a variety of different ways.  The most basic is through simple supply and demand, which is affected by global output. Increased industrial output, economic prosperity, and other factors all play a role in crude prices. By extension, recessions, lockdowns, or other stifling factors can also influence crude prices. For example, an oversupply or mitigated demand due to the aforementioned factors would result in lower crude prices. This is due to traders selling crude oil futures or other instruments.  Should demand rise or production plateau, traders will bid increasingly on crude, whereby driving prices up.
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prices down nearly over 5% on the day, but still above the $100 level. Earlier this week (on Tuesday) the price dipped below that level to $98.44 only to close higher on the day. OPEC announced that they would stick to the 400,000 barrel per day production increase in the month of May.

China’s PMI index fell below the 50 level to 49.5 as Covid shutdowns, higher oil prices continue to shudder the economy. Shanghai lockdowns are likely to continue with reports that it might go past the scheduled end data Friday.

US core PCE data will be released at 8:30 AM ET. The month-to-month increase is expected at 0.4% and the year on year at 5.5% up from 5.2%. The core PCE is a favorite measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve. Personal income and personal spending will also be released. The weekly initial jobs claims which fell to lowest level since 1979 last week are expected at 197K versus 187K last week.

In other markets as North American traders enter for the day.

  • Spot gold is trading down $1.20 or -0.06% at $1931.37
  • Spot silver up two cents or 0.07% at $24.86
  • Spot crude oil is trading down $5.71 or -5.33% at $102.10.
  • Bitcoin is trading at $47,155 that’s up about $87 or 0.19% on the day

In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are trading lower:

  • Dow industrial average down -24 points after yesterday’s -65.3 point decline
  • S&P index up 1 point after yesterday’s -29.15 point decline
  • NASDAQ index is up 35 points after yesterday’s -177.36 point decline

In the European equity markets, the major indices are mostly lower with the exception of the UK’s FTSE 100

  • German DAX, down -0.4%
  • France’s CAC, down -0.6%
  • UK’s FTSE 100 down 0.2%
  • Spain’s Ibex, down -0.35%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB down -0.2%

In the US debt market, US yields are lower across the board, with the two – 10 year spread remaining steady near three basis points

US yields

US yields are lower today

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In the European debt market, the snapshot of the benchmark 10 year yields are all moving sharply to the downside with declines of -8 to-10 basis points in most of the country yields

European

European benchmark 10 year yields are lower across the board

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A.R Chowdhury

A.R Chowdhury

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