The ECB decision has pushed the EURUSD higher by about 80 or so pips (from low to high). In doing so the price moved to the highest level in a week. The price also moved back above the 1.1100 level at least on the first run higher (see Justin’s view here).
Looking at the hourly chart above, the price moved above the February low at 1.1106 but has not broken above the January 2021 low at 1.11207. That area is the next target followed by the 50% of the move down from the February 10 high at 1.11497 (call it 1.1150). Move above that area and the door opens from more upside with a more bullish bias.
What would hurt the more positive bias off the more hawkish decision today?
Watch the 38.2% at 1.10684 for support on a dip. A move below would look back toward the 200 hour MA which gave buyers/sellers a cause for pause on the tests earlier today. Move below that MA, and the traders are refocused to the downside.
The market is pricing in 40BP hike by the end of the year vs 35 basis points before the announcement. The 10 year bund yield moved up to 0.30% from 0.19%, but is trading near 0.26% currently.
