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Home ANALYSIS

The EUR is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day

A.R Chowdhury by A.R Chowdhury
March 11, 2022
Reading Time: 9 mins read
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The EUR is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day

forex

The strongest to the weakest of the major currencies

The  EUR 
EUR

The euro (EUR) is the official currency of the European Union (EU) and 19 of 27 member states at the time of writing. It is the second most-traded currency worldwide in forex markets after the US dollar.The euro was originally introduced back on January 1, 1999, having replaced the European Currency Unit. Banknotes and physical euro coins subsequently entered circulation only in 2002.Upon its adoption, the euro replaced domestic currencies in participating EU member states. The rise in its value since then and importance in the global market has helped solidify its status as one of the most important currencies in the FX market today.Together with the USD, the currency pair is easily among the most important for forex, given its exposure into the two main economic blocs. What Factors Affects the EUR?There are several factors that affect the euro. Like most currencies, monetary policy is the most influential, which in this case refers to the European Central Bank (ECB).The ECB is responsible for regulating the monetary policy, money supply, interest rates, and relative strength of the euro. Forex traders of the euro are routinely tuned into any decision or announcements from the ECB for this reason.With 19 sovereign member states, the euro is particularly vulnerable to political developments. Recent examples include Greece’s debt crisis and Brexit, among others, which can seriously impact the euro.Finally, economic data from the bloc or from key member states such as Germany, France, Spain, and others are also closely eyed. This includes retail sales, jobless claims, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and others.

The euro (EUR) is the official currency of the European Union (EU) and 19 of 27 member states at the time of writing. It is the second most-traded currency worldwide in forex markets after the US dollar.The euro was originally introduced back on January 1, 1999, having replaced the European Currency Unit. Banknotes and physical euro coins subsequently entered circulation only in 2002.Upon its adoption, the euro replaced domestic currencies in participating EU member states. The rise in its value since then and importance in the global market has helped solidify its status as one of the most important currencies in the FX market today.Together with the USD, the currency pair is easily among the most important for forex, given its exposure into the two main economic blocs. What Factors Affects the EUR?There are several factors that affect the euro. Like most currencies, monetary policy is the most influential, which in this case refers to the European Central Bank (ECB).The ECB is responsible for regulating the monetary policy, money supply, interest rates, and relative strength of the euro. Forex traders of the euro are routinely tuned into any decision or announcements from the ECB for this reason.With 19 sovereign member states, the euro is particularly vulnerable to political developments. Recent examples include Greece’s debt crisis and Brexit, among others, which can seriously impact the euro.Finally, economic data from the bloc or from key member states such as Germany, France, Spain, and others are also closely eyed. This includes retail sales, jobless claims, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and others.
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is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is mixed. The price action in the markets have been shaped by comments over the last hour or so on the back of comment from Putin that “there are certain positive shifts in talke with Ukraine”.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Zelensky is saying that Ukraine “has reached a strategic turning point in war” and that “time and patience is still needed until victory is achieved”.

The question is “Is this a smokescreen that will end in tears?” or “Are the bombardment of sanctions and defeats on the ground on Russian forces – and all that comes with that – leading to the drive for a truce?”.

The wild card is Putin himself. He drives the machine. He pushed all the chips in the table. The world has reacted from governments to the private sector. There is economic damage all around.

War is not the norm and this war is different. It might not be a world war as in WWI and WWII, but it is an economic WW that is pushing all the players to the gaming table with the stakes high (including potentially China).

Regardless of the end result, the markets – rightly or wrongly – have reacted to the headline news:

  • EURUSD moved higher
  • Stocks moved higher
  • Yields are higher
  •  Gold 
    Gold

    Gold is the most widely traded and important commodity. Prized for its historical importance and used for trading an exchange of goods, the gold market today is estimated at nearly $2.4 trillion.The value of gold fluctuates constantly, as it trades on public exchanges where it has a price that is determined by supply and demand. Gold has historically had tremendous significance and even today is extremely sought after. Gold has been used as a currency as it doesn’t corrode, and the material allows for some absorption of light creating a yellow glow, which lends the name yellow metal.Ultimately, institutional and retail investors buy and sell gold contracts or physical gold, thus creating the demand and supply flow.This can be pure speculation, to acquire or distribute physical gold, or as a hedge for commercial application. For day-traders, the purpose of trading gold is to profit from its daily price movements.How to Trade GoldDay-trading gold is speculating on its short-term price movements. Of note, physical gold is not actually handled or taken possession of, rather the transactions take place electronically and only profits or losses are reflected in the trading account.There are a number of ways to ultimately trade gold. Retail brokers typically offer exposure to gold through contracts-for-difference (CFDs).Beyond retail brokers, the main way to trade gold is via a futures contract. This represents an agreement to buy or sell something, i.e. gold at a future date. Buying a gold futures contract doesn’t mean you actually have to take possession of the physical commodity.Day traders close out all contracts (trades) each day and make a profit based on the difference between the price they bought the contract and the price they sold it at. However, on a futures exchange, gold moves in $0.10 increments only. This increment is known as a tick. It is the smallest movement a futures contract can make. If you buy or sell a futures contract, how many ticks the price moves away from your entry price determines your profit or loss.

    Gold is the most widely traded and important commodity. Prized for its historical importance and used for trading an exchange of goods, the gold market today is estimated at nearly $2.4 trillion.The value of gold fluctuates constantly, as it trades on public exchanges where it has a price that is determined by supply and demand. Gold has historically had tremendous significance and even today is extremely sought after. Gold has been used as a currency as it doesn’t corrode, and the material allows for some absorption of light creating a yellow glow, which lends the name yellow metal.Ultimately, institutional and retail investors buy and sell gold contracts or physical gold, thus creating the demand and supply flow.This can be pure speculation, to acquire or distribute physical gold, or as a hedge for commercial application. For day-traders, the purpose of trading gold is to profit from its daily price movements.How to Trade GoldDay-trading gold is speculating on its short-term price movements. Of note, physical gold is not actually handled or taken possession of, rather the transactions take place electronically and only profits or losses are reflected in the trading account.There are a number of ways to ultimately trade gold. Retail brokers typically offer exposure to gold through contracts-for-difference (CFDs).Beyond retail brokers, the main way to trade gold is via a futures contract. This represents an agreement to buy or sell something, i.e. gold at a future date. Buying a gold futures contract doesn’t mean you actually have to take possession of the physical commodity.Day traders close out all contracts (trades) each day and make a profit based on the difference between the price they bought the contract and the price they sold it at. However, on a futures exchange, gold moves in $0.10 increments only. This increment is known as a tick. It is the smallest movement a futures contract can make. If you buy or sell a futures contract, how many ticks the price moves away from your entry price determines your profit or loss.
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    is tumbling
  • Crude oil moves is off it’s high near $110.25 back down toward the $106.50 area. The contract settled at $106.02 yesterday. The price rose on talk that the Iranian talks had stalled.
  • The USDRUB is lower (RUB higher) at 128.75 down from a high at 135.62.trading down $33 and seven cents or -1.66% at $1963.30

A snapshot of other markets are showing:

  • Spot gold is trading down $31.75 or -1.6% at $1964.45.
  • Spot silver is trading down $0.41 or -1.52% at $25.48
  • WTI crude oil is trading at $106.87 up $0.85 or 0.89%.
  • Bitcoin just moved back above the $40,000 level at $40,175. The low price reached $38,244.76. The high prices up $40,237.22

In the premarket for US stocks, the futures are implying gains across the major indices. Yesterday the major indices fell but recovered off their lows.

  • Dow industrial average is up 385 points. Yesterday the index fell 112.18 points.
  • S&P index is up 56 points. Yesterday the index fell -18.36 point
  • NASDAQ index is up 218 points. Yesterday the index fell -125.58 points

In the European equity market, the major indices have also seen a push to the upside, erasing some/all the declines from yesterday’s trade:

  • German DAX, +3.5% (yesterday -2.93%)
  • France’s CAC, +2.4% (yesterday -2.83%)
  • UK’s FTSE 100 +1.4% (yesterday -1.27%)
  • Spain’s Ibex, +2.2% (yesterday at 1.15%)
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB +2.5% (yesterday -4.2%)

In the US debt market, the yields are mixed with the short rent higher in the longer end not so much.

US yields

US yields are higher

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In the European debt market, the yields are also mostly higher with the exception of the Italian 10 year. Yesterday the ECB was a bit more hawkish but kept the door opened for optionality on policy.

European

European yields are mostly higher
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A.R Chowdhury

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