Fed Powell speaking at Jackson Hole
With the Fed Chair Powell speaking and expectations that he will present a new inflation targeting format for the Fed that could keep rates unchanged for up to 5 years, the forex market is relatively quiet in anticipation (he begins to speak at 9:10 AM ET HERE
). The strongest currency is the AUD. The weakest is the CHF, but the major currencies are clustered close together. To illustrate the uncertainty of the next move, the USD % gains and % losses today add up to 0.00% (higher vs the CHF, EUR, GBP and JPY and declines vs the AUD, NZD and CAD). Yesterday the USD fell.
The ranges and changes charts below show all the major currencies within 18 pips of the unchanged level (the USDCHF is the farthest from the 0 line at +18 pips). The ranges for the major pairs vs the USD are likewise contained. The GBP has the largest range at 64 pips (vs 22 day average of 113 pips). The EURUSD range is 56 pips and the USDCHF is 50 pips. The rest are in the 30’s pip range. JPY crosses are all within 20 pips of the unchanged level today with mixed changes (down vs the EURJPY and GBPJPY and up vs AUDJPY, NZDJPY and CADJPY).
In other markets:
- Spot gold is trading down . $-14.60 or -0.74% at $1939.73
- Spot silver is trading down $0.22 or -0.83% at $27.27
- WTI crude oil futures are trading down $0.28 or -0.65% of $43.11
In the premarket for US equities, the futures are implying modest declines. Yesterday both the S&P and NASDAQ closed once again at record high levels. The Dow industrial average closed within 1% point of unchanged on the year:
- Dow, -43 points
- S&P index -3 points
- NASDAQ index -6 points.
In the European equity markets the gains from yesterday are being retraced today:
- German DAX, -0.2%
- France’s CAC, -0.4%
- UK’s FTSE 100, -0.15%
- Spain’s Ibex, -0.7%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.7%
In the US debt market yields are moving lower. The US treasury will auction off $47 billion of 7 year notes at 1 PM ET which will complete their refunding for the week.
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are all trending to the downside as well:
In addition to the Fed’s Powell, 2nd revision for GDP, initial claims, pending home sales will be released this morning. The aftermath of hurricane Laura as it made landfall will be assessed. The Republicans and Democrats may look to chatter more about the stimulus package. According to the CNBC, the Republicans are offering a skinny bill of $500 billion which is still far away from what the Dems proposed at $2 trillion.