Technically on the daily chart, the price has been able to extend above its 200 day moving average this week . That level comes in at 0.6908. On Monday, the price moved above that moving average line but failed. Yesterday the pair trended higher cracking through the level and racing to the upside.
The move – and close – above the 200 day moving average was the first since November 9. It will remain a risk and bias defining level going forward. Stay above is more bullish. Move below and buyers turned sellers.
As mentioned above, the 50% midpoint at 0.6996 is the next key level to get to and through (and 0.7000). Move above and on the daily chart, and traders will start to look toward the downward sloping trendline that cuts across near 0.7059 as the next target.
Drilling down to the hourly chart below, should resistance hold against the aforementioned levels in the NZDUSD, a move below the high from earlier today at 0.69745 could start to see some more corrective selling (if the price can stay below that level). It’s not the end of the world, but traders do like to see breaks have some run.
Further down, the 38.2% retracement – 50% retracement of the move up from yesterday’s low comes in at the 0.69249 – 0.69397 area.
Break that, and the rising 100 hour moving average currently at 0.6914, would be another key level to get to and through if the sellers are to take more control.
Of note is that the low price from yesterday stalled right at the 100 hour moving average. That should increase the moving average’s importance going forward.