Ceiling and MAs stalled rallies this week
The NZDUSD has buyers and sellers battling it out against a ceiling, 38.2% retracement and 100/200 hour MAs. Yesterday the price stayed below the 38.2%. Today, the 100 hour MA and 200 hour MA stalled rallies.
Him
Staying below each, kept the sellers in control. The price action in the NY afternoon session, sent the price lower.
What now?
The run lower has pushed the price to the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the April 23 low. That comes in at 0.60108. Also near that level are swing levels down to 0.6070. Good support.
Traders have stalled the fall (dip buyers). If the dip buyers turn the tide, look for a move back above 0.6032 for more confidence and the 50% midpoint at 0.6042.
On the downside, there will likely be stops on a break below the 0.6007 level (with an eye to get below 0.6000 too – natural support level).
The bearish caveat is that the range for the first 3 days of the week is only 69 pips (from low to the high). That is not a lot of price action (only one week with a lower trading range in 2020). As a result, I would expect an extension outside the range at some point this week. Being near the low gives the sellers the advantage that the break will be on the downside.