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Home ANALYSIS

GBPUSD price action makes you want to lie down until the feeling to trade goes away

A.R Chowdhury by A.R Chowdhury
April 7, 2022
Reading Time: 6 mins read
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GBPUSD

GBPUSD up and down trading continues

The price action over the last two days in the  GBPUSD 
GBP/USD

The GBP/USD is the currency pair encompassing the United Kingdom’s currency, the British pound sterling (symbol £, code GBP), and the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many US dollars are needed in order to purchase one British pound. For example, when the GBP/USD is trading at 1.5000, it means 1 pound is equivalent to 1.5 dollars. The GBP/USD is the fourth most traded currency pair on the forex exchange market, giving it ample liquidity and a low spread. Whilst the spreads of currency pairs vary from broker to broker, generally speaking, the GBP/USD often stays within the 1 pip to 3 pip spread range, making it a decent candidate for scalping. The GBP/USD pair, also informally known as “cable” (due to transatlantic cables being used to transmit its exchange rate via telegraph back in the 19th century) has a positive correlation with the EUR/USD, and a negative correlation with the USD/CHF. Trading the GBP/USDWhilst a lot of traders and even brokers will assert that the best time to trade the GBP/USD is during its most active hours during London and New York, doing so can be a double-edged sword due to the often-unpredictable nature of the pair. Its volatility also fluctuates often, and so what could be a profitable looking strategy one month, may not be so productive in later months. In addition, purely technical traders can really struggle to be consistent with this pair, (i.e. by ignoring fundamentals), due to the unique political nature of the United Kingdom. The recent drama surrounding Brexit has added another layer of uncertainty to this currency pair. With a smooth resolution not in the cards for the foreseeable future, it is clear the GBP/USD will be influenced by any developments and negotiations with the European Union.

The GBP/USD is the currency pair encompassing the United Kingdom’s currency, the British pound sterling (symbol £, code GBP), and the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many US dollars are needed in order to purchase one British pound. For example, when the GBP/USD is trading at 1.5000, it means 1 pound is equivalent to 1.5 dollars. The GBP/USD is the fourth most traded currency pair on the forex exchange market, giving it ample liquidity and a low spread. Whilst the spreads of currency pairs vary from broker to broker, generally speaking, the GBP/USD often stays within the 1 pip to 3 pip spread range, making it a decent candidate for scalping. The GBP/USD pair, also informally known as “cable” (due to transatlantic cables being used to transmit its exchange rate via telegraph back in the 19th century) has a positive correlation with the EUR/USD, and a negative correlation with the USD/CHF. Trading the GBP/USDWhilst a lot of traders and even brokers will assert that the best time to trade the GBP/USD is during its most active hours during London and New York, doing so can be a double-edged sword due to the often-unpredictable nature of the pair. Its volatility also fluctuates often, and so what could be a profitable looking strategy one month, may not be so productive in later months. In addition, purely technical traders can really struggle to be consistent with this pair, (i.e. by ignoring fundamentals), due to the unique political nature of the United Kingdom. The recent drama surrounding Brexit has added another layer of uncertainty to this currency pair. With a smooth resolution not in the cards for the foreseeable future, it is clear the GBP/USD will be influenced by any developments and negotiations with the European Union.
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makes you want to lie down until the feeling goes away to trade. The price has moved up and down between 1.3107 on the topside and 1.3044 on the downside. Today’s low reached 1.30495 in the first hour of the Asian session, and a high of 1.31058 in the early Europe session.

The move to the upside in the GBPUSD today, did briefly break above its 100 hour moving average (blue line currently at 1.30974), but the momentum could not be sustained as sellers leaned against the high from yesterday instead (see green numbered circles).

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On the downside, swing lows from March 29 at 1.3059 and 1.3049 will now be eyed (the price currently trading at 1.3072) followed by a swing low going back to March 16 at 1.30419 (see red numbered circles).

Yesterday’s low stalled just ahead of that level as did the post the FOMC  volatility 
Volatility

In terms of trading, volatility refers to the amount of change in the rate of an index or asset, such as forex, commodities, stocks, over a given time period. Trading volatility can be a means of describing an instrument’s fluctuation. For example, a highly volatile stock equates to large fluctuations in price, whereas a low volatile stock equates to tepid fluctuations in price. Overall, volatility is an important statistical indicator used by many parties, including financial traders, analysts, and brokers. Volatility can be an important determinant in developing trading systems, protocols, or regulations.In the retail space, traders can be successful in both low and high volatile environments, however the strategies employed are often different depending upon volatility. Is Volatility Good or Bad? In the forex space, lower levels of volatile across currency pairs offer less surprises, movements, and are suited to certain types of individuals such as position traders.By extension, high volatile pairs are attractive for many day traders. This is due to rapid and strong movements, which collectively offer the potential for higher profits.However, the risk associated with such volatile pairs are manifold. Of note, volatility with instruments or indices can and do change over time. There can be periods when even highly volatile instruments show signs of flatness, with price not really making headway in either direction. For example, certain months in the summer are associated with low trading volatility.Too little volatility is just as problematic for markets as too much. Too much volatility can instill panic and create its own issues, such as liquidity constraints.A famous example of this are considered Black Swan events, which have historically roiled currency and equity markets.

In terms of trading, volatility refers to the amount of change in the rate of an index or asset, such as forex, commodities, stocks, over a given time period. Trading volatility can be a means of describing an instrument’s fluctuation. For example, a highly volatile stock equates to large fluctuations in price, whereas a low volatile stock equates to tepid fluctuations in price. Overall, volatility is an important statistical indicator used by many parties, including financial traders, analysts, and brokers. Volatility can be an important determinant in developing trading systems, protocols, or regulations.In the retail space, traders can be successful in both low and high volatile environments, however the strategies employed are often different depending upon volatility. Is Volatility Good or Bad? In the forex space, lower levels of volatile across currency pairs offer less surprises, movements, and are suited to certain types of individuals such as position traders.By extension, high volatile pairs are attractive for many day traders. This is due to rapid and strong movements, which collectively offer the potential for higher profits.However, the risk associated with such volatile pairs are manifold. Of note, volatility with instruments or indices can and do change over time. There can be periods when even highly volatile instruments show signs of flatness, with price not really making headway in either direction. For example, certain months in the summer are associated with low trading volatility.Too little volatility is just as problematic for markets as too much. Too much volatility can instill panic and create its own issues, such as liquidity constraints.A famous example of this are considered Black Swan events, which have historically roiled currency and equity markets.
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low (at 1.30472).

The extremes are doing a good job at confining the pair in the GBPUSD with 1.3107 above and 1.3042 on the downside as the bookend resistance and support levels.

In between the bookend what you do?

The choppy price action makes you want to lie down until the feeling to trade goes away.

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A.R Chowdhury

A.R Chowdhury

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