Move back above the 100 hour moving average and the 50% of the range since March 15 would be eyed at 1.31482. That is near the high for the day. The 200 hour moving average at 1.31606 would also be eyed on a move back to the upside..
Recall from yesterday – and again on Wednesday – the price of the GBPUSD moved above the 200 hour moving average (green line) after breaking below on Monday in the Asian session. However, momentum on the breaks above that moving average could not be sustained. On Wednesday, the price moved up to test the Monday high (and high for the week) at 1.3182, but found willing sellers at 1.3181 just below that level. Yesterday, the break above the 200 hour moving average was just a few pips before buyers turned to sellers.
So in the medium-term, getting above the 200 hour moving average and staying above that level, would be an important barometer for buyers. Absent that move, the sellers remain in control.
For the week, the range is 132 pips with the low reached on Tuesday at 1.3049. That represents the lowest trading range for the calendar year and the lowest range since 130 pips during the week of December 5, 2021.
With the price trading near mid range for the week, can sellers pushed down and extend the range? It seems unlikely with only 7 or so hours left in the day, but one never knows. Stay below the 100 hour moving average and sellers may gain additional confidence.
PS As I type, GBPUSD is making news lows and looks to break below the 1.3100 level. Sellers in control. Watch 1.3078 – 1.30878 swing area next followed by the low for the week at 1.3049.
