Looking back to 2016, the price traded above and below the 160.00 from mid-March to near mid-June. The high during that period reached 163.89 which is a target on more upside. The low was at 151.43 (which is also near the 38.2% on the weekly chart above).
The price a few weeks ago fell below the lower swing level to 150.96, but after a few days of trading above and below the level, the price based and started its sharp trend move to the upside (see hourly chart below).
The close risk is now the 50% midpoint. Below that it would take a move below the rising 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart below (blue line. That is rising toward the 38.2% of the trend move higher today.
More recently there has been come stall and ups and downs as the pair approached 160.00 level, but the pair’s declines were still modest relatively, to the run higher. Getting below the 38.2-50% area and the rising 100 bar MA at 159.10 currently is required to take the pair out of the trend like mood it is in now.