The EURUSD trended lower from the February 10 high to the March 7 low (no move of about 690 pips lower).
Since then, the price had traded higher to sideways, but stayed below its 50% midpoint of the trend move lower at 1.11497.
Today, the price has finally extended above the 50% midpoint on two separate occasions. The earlier London morning swing high failed on the break. The early US session break is now in progress.
If the buyers are to take control, staying above the 50% is the best case scenario. More conservative risk would be down to 1.11369 which is the low of swing lows and highs going back to February 28.
If that area can hold support, a further probing to the upside would have traders targeting the natural resistance at 1.1200 along with the 61.8% retracement near 1.1231.
A move below 1.11369 would likely disappoint the buyers and lead to buyers turned to sellers with support near 1.1100 followed by the broken 38.2% retracement 1.10684.
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