After falling on a break above both the 100 and 200 hour MAs (see blue and green lines on the hourly chart above) on Friday and moving lower into the close, the EURUSD continued it’s move to the downside today breaking below the swing lows from last week between 1.0960 and 1.09649 in the process.
The low price extended to 1.09438 and bounced back to the upside and the aforementioned swing area. The buying did not stop until reaching its falling 100 hour moving average at 1.0999.
The price has since moved back below the 1.0604-1.09649 area and is pushing back to the lows. A break below, would now target the 61.8% at 1.09318 and the lows from March 15 at 1.09253. The lows from March 11 and March 14 come in near the 1.0900 area.
If the sellers are to take more control, the best case scenario technically would be to sell against 1.09649 and don’t get above 50% at 1.0971 intraday. Move back above the 50% and you have to worry about another rotation to the upside.
It is the sellers turn to show they mean business to the downside.