The EURUSD is higher on the day, but coming off a high that saw the pair approach and briefly break above the near converged 100/200 hour MAs. The momentum faded, however, and price faded to the downside.
The dip is finding some support near 1.0933 to 1.0943 swing area (highs and lows over the last 6-7 days). If the level is able to hold (and it is so far), another run through the 100/200 hour MAs would be eyed by the buyers. The dip low reached 1.09342 between the swing levels. The current price is at 1.0956.
Last week, the pair traded to the lowest level level since May 2020 at 1.0805 (see daily chart below), before starting a rotation higher helped by lower oil prices and hopes for a solution. That rise took the price to a swing high at 1.11207 which took the price above the 200 hour MA for the first time since February 23rd. The price fell back below that MA, but tried again to move above on Friday, but also failed.
Today’s attempt was shorter in duration and magnitude as well.
Ultimately, if the buyers are to take more control, getting and staying above the falling 200 hour MA is the minimum hurdle. From there, other swing lows, the 38.2% at 1.10684 of the move down from the Feb 10 high are other targets.
Absent that, and the buyers are not winning. The sellers still remain in control.