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Home ANALYSIS

Crude oil falling on the Iran news

A.R Chowdhury by A.R Chowdhury
March 3, 2022
Reading Time: 7 mins read
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Crude oil falling on the Iran news

The price of WTI crude is running to the downside as news of an imminent deal with Iran is taking hold (see post here)

oil

The price of crude reached a new high going back to 2008 today at $116.57. The current price is at $108.45. The low just extended to $106.45. That level was just short of the 38.2% of the move up from the last swing low on Feb 25 (starting at $90.05 low). The retracement level comes in at $106.40.

Oil

Crude oil falls to 38.2% retracement of recent move higher

A move below the 38.2% would target a swing low from yesterday at $105.16. Move below that, and the 50% of the same move higher cuts across at 103.28.

SInce the Feb 25 swing low, the price of  crude oil 
Crude Oil

Crude oil is the most popular tradable instrument in the energy sector, offering exposure to global market conditions, geopolitical risk, and economics. The instrument is strategically relied upon and situated in the global economy. Crude oil has proven to be a unique option for traders given volatility and the efficacy of both swing trading and longer-term strategies. Despite its popularity, crude oil is a very complex investing instrument, given the litany of fluctuations in oil prices, risk, and impact of politics stemming from OPEC. Short for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC operates as an intergovernmental organization of 13 countries, helping set and dictate the global oil market.How to Trade Crude Oil Crude oil is most commonly traded as an exchange-traded fund (ETF) or through other instruments with exposure to it. This includes energy stocks, the USD/CAD, and other investing options. Crude oil itself is traded across a duality of markets, including the West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) and Brent crude. Brent is the more relied upon index in recent years, while WTI is more heavily traded across futures trading at the time of writing. Other than geopolitical events or decisions by OPEC, crude oil can move due to a variety of different ways.  The most basic is through simple supply and demand, which is affected by global output. Increased industrial output, economic prosperity, and other factors all play a role in crude prices. By extension, recessions, lockdowns, or other stifling factors can also influence crude prices. For example, an oversupply or mitigated demand due to the aforementioned factors would result in lower crude prices. This is due to traders selling crude oil futures or other instruments.  Should demand rise or production plateau, traders will bid increasingly on crude, whereby driving prices up.

Crude oil is the most popular tradable instrument in the energy sector, offering exposure to global market conditions, geopolitical risk, and economics. The instrument is strategically relied upon and situated in the global economy. Crude oil has proven to be a unique option for traders given volatility and the efficacy of both swing trading and longer-term strategies. Despite its popularity, crude oil is a very complex investing instrument, given the litany of fluctuations in oil prices, risk, and impact of politics stemming from OPEC. Short for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC operates as an intergovernmental organization of 13 countries, helping set and dictate the global oil market.How to Trade Crude Oil Crude oil is most commonly traded as an exchange-traded fund (ETF) or through other instruments with exposure to it. This includes energy stocks, the USD/CAD, and other investing options. Crude oil itself is traded across a duality of markets, including the West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) and Brent crude. Brent is the more relied upon index in recent years, while WTI is more heavily traded across futures trading at the time of writing. Other than geopolitical events or decisions by OPEC, crude oil can move due to a variety of different ways.  The most basic is through simple supply and demand, which is affected by global output. Increased industrial output, economic prosperity, and other factors all play a role in crude prices. By extension, recessions, lockdowns, or other stifling factors can also influence crude prices. For example, an oversupply or mitigated demand due to the aforementioned factors would result in lower crude prices. This is due to traders selling crude oil futures or other instruments.  Should demand rise or production plateau, traders will bid increasingly on crude, whereby driving prices up.
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has soared 28.3% (from the low to the high today) as Russian invasion of Ukraine pushed the price sharply higher.

The word of a nuclear deal with Iran comes at a good time (I hope it lasts), and would open up some supply that will be lost from Russia as the NATO countries (and beyond) tighten the economic sanctions on Russia – including oil.

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A Russian oil producer Surgutneftegaz, found NO buyers for April exports averaging over 200K barrels a day today. With oil comfortably above $100 (and up to $116), that tells a story of the potential economic impact.

US stocks have also seen a boost higher on the news with the futures now implying a higher open:

  • Dow is up 214 points. The index rose 596.40 points yesterday
  • S&P is up 32 points after rising 80.26 points yesterday
  •  Nasdaq 
    NASDAQ

    The Nasdaq Stock Market or NASDAQ is an American stock exchange. It trails only the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in market capitalization and is part of a network of stock markets and options exchanges.Launched back in 1971, NASDAQ is the acronym for the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations. Since then it is known simply as NASDAQ and has become one of the most influential exchanges worldwide.The NASDAQ was the world’s first electronic stock market, and has since assumed the majority of major trades that had been executed by the over-the-counter (OTC) system of trading.What Makes Up the NASDAQ?In particular, the exchange also features the NASDAQ Composite, which includes almost all stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock market. Along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIJA) and S&P 500 Index, this is one of the three most-followed stock market indices in the United States.Overall, the NASDAQ stock market has three different market tiers. This includes the Capital Market, or an equity market for companies that have relatively small levels of market capitalization. The listing requirements for small cap companies are less stringent than for other Nasdaq markets that list larger companies with significantly higher market capitalization.Additionally, the Global Market is made up of stocks that represent the Nasdaq Global Market. The Global Market consists of 1,450 stocks that meet the exchange’s financial and liquidity requirements, and corporate governance standards.Finally, the Global Select Market is a market capitalization-weighted index made up of 1,200 US-based and international stocks that represent the Global Select Market Composite.

    The Nasdaq Stock Market or NASDAQ is an American stock exchange. It trails only the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in market capitalization and is part of a network of stock markets and options exchanges.Launched back in 1971, NASDAQ is the acronym for the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations. Since then it is known simply as NASDAQ and has become one of the most influential exchanges worldwide.The NASDAQ was the world’s first electronic stock market, and has since assumed the majority of major trades that had been executed by the over-the-counter (OTC) system of trading.What Makes Up the NASDAQ?In particular, the exchange also features the NASDAQ Composite, which includes almost all stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock market. Along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIJA) and S&P 500 Index, this is one of the three most-followed stock market indices in the United States.Overall, the NASDAQ stock market has three different market tiers. This includes the Capital Market, or an equity market for companies that have relatively small levels of market capitalization. The listing requirements for small cap companies are less stringent than for other Nasdaq markets that list larger companies with significantly higher market capitalization.Additionally, the Global Market is made up of stocks that represent the Nasdaq Global Market. The Global Market consists of 1,450 stocks that meet the exchange’s financial and liquidity requirements, and corporate governance standards.Finally, the Global Select Market is a market capitalization-weighted index made up of 1,200 US-based and international stocks that represent the Global Select Market Composite.
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    is up 142 points after rising 219.56 points yesterday
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A.R Chowdhury

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