Wheat futures was one of the biggest gainers on the back of the Russian invasion.
The CBOT futures contract at one point traded limit up for 6 consecutive days. The string ended on March 7 after the price reached $13.63. That was up from swing low on Feb 3 at $7.40. The gain from the low to high took the price up 84.26%.
Since then the price action has been volatile with a corrective bias.
On March 9, the price gapped back below the 100 hour MA (blue line), retraced up to the MA, and found sellers (on March 10). From that high, the price rotated back to the downside and ultimately tested the 50% midpoint of the move up from the February 3 low at $10.51. The low price reached $10.43 before bouncing back to the upside.
Today the price is trading at its highest level since March 10, and in the process is back retesting the near converged 100 and 200 hour moving averages. The 100 hour moving average is at $11.44. The 200 hour moving average is at $11.55. The current price is trading just above that moving average at $11.57.
Key test for both the buyers and sellers. Move above with momentum, and buyers would be back in control. Conversely, stay below and another rotation to the downside can be expected.
Of course the market is subject to news from Russia/Ukraine. Supply issues will also play a part going forward as Ukraine is likely not paying attention to their wheat output.
However markets tend to overshoot and then correct. That is what we have seen since the peak on March 7.
The technical levels, like the 50% midpoint and the 100 and 200 hour moving averages, helped to give traders some bias and risk defining levels. With the price trading right around the moving averages, it is a key barometer area for both buyers and sellers.
Be aware, and pay attention to the clues. They help to tell the story.