Today, the price was able to move back above its 200 day moving average and 50% midpoint of the range since the March 7 high. Both those levels came in at 0.73025. Of significance is that the price based against those technical levels before making the next run to the upside over the last eight or so trading hours. That level is now a key risk level going forward.
The high price is currently trading at session highs at 0.7358. The down and up lap from the March 10/March 11 high is completed at 0.73675. Traders could lean against that level with stops on a break above.
Also near that swing high level sits other swing levels going back to March 4 and March 7 at 0.7374 and 0.73979 (see red numbered circles and topside yellow area).
Move above those levels, and the price enters the extreme area from the month. The high price in March for the AUDUSD extended to 0.74405. After breaking and running to that high on March 7, buyers turned to sellers, moved back below the 0.7374 area, and trended more to the downside.
Needless to say, the pair has been on a roller coaster.
Fundamentally, the move lower was helped by declining China stocks and risk off sentiment. The most recent move to the upside over the last few days has been helped by a rebounding Chinese stock market (after the central bank and government said they would support the economy and the stock market). Today the price high was helped by stronger than expected jobs report (that news took the price back above the 100 day moving average/50% level).
So the pair is certainly influenced by headline news. That can change over time, but the technicals remain in play and are providing traders with risk defining and bias shifting levels.
Right now, staying above the 200 day moving average and 50% retracement is a solid support and risk defining level. Absent a move below those levels, buyers are more in control, and traders will be eyeing the swing area up to 0.73799 before the extreme high at 0.74405.
